50% eye inland - Continues west

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Frank P
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50% eye inland - Continues west

#1 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 04, 2004 11:46 pm

Looks to be traveling about 7-8 mph.... should start turning more to the wnw to nw if its going to stay on the NHCs track..... lets see if that plays out tonight....

and to get North of Tampa per the forecast she's going to have to shift to a NW heading quick too
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logybogy

#2 Postby logybogy » Sat Sep 04, 2004 11:48 pm

I'm not sure it is moving that fast. The eye appears to have contracted and filled in a lot giving the allusion of it moving faster than it may be.
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#3 Postby FritzPaul » Sat Sep 04, 2004 11:51 pm

Crazy Math:

I noticed on radar it took 1 1/2 hr to move halfway inland.

If the eye is 52.2 miles wide (45 Nautical miles), half of that would be 26.1 miles.

So 26.1 miles/ 1.5 hours = 17.4 mph

I know this has got to be wrong, but I'm just trying to use some science to figure out what the #@$% is going on.
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#4 Postby ~SirCane » Sat Sep 04, 2004 11:52 pm

Afraid the track will move more to the West in my general direction the farther it moves West. I'll be watching! I do NOT want this sneaking up on me.
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#5 Postby Frank P » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:00 am

logybogy wrote:I'm not sure it is moving that fast. The eye appears to have contracted and filled in a lot giving the allusion of it moving faster than it may be.


Per the NHCs 1:00 am update - ""Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph."" I think they are being a little generous with the direction but they are the experts....

I was right on with the speed....

I just saw a rather long radar loop of Frances on MSNBC... sure looked more like north of due west ....
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#6 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:03 am

11 PM: 27.1 N 79.7 W
1 Am 27.2 N 80.2 W.


Errr. Thats about due west nhc. No more than 275 degrees. Oh well cant change it.
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#7 Postby rtd2 » Sun Sep 05, 2004 12:31 am

quote "should start turning more to the wnw to nw if its going to stay on the NHCs track"






Dont see it happening....just ask the folk up the coast of FLA,GA AND NC,,,tracks have been to far North for days now there still a little too north and east.... if She keeps that wwwnw heading she will go thru over very near PUNTA GORDA then GOMEX up to near mobile bay
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