Is it likely at all that Ivan would hit S Fla?

[Canehater]

I wondering if I should leave my shutters up? I am west of Ft Lauderdale.

[Guest]

Might want to just to be on the safe side unless you love to remove and re-install the shutters often. It is still a long way out.

[ericinmia]

lol i would leave them up...

I'm not predicting anything this far out, but take a look at this...


-Eric

[CourierPR]

Bryan Norcross on local WFOR TV said that we will need to watch Ivan by week's end. The five day NHC forecast track has Ivan near Eastern Cuba in 120 hours. I'd leave those shutters up if I were you.

[x-y-no]

I'm taking about half the shutters down at my place and at my parent's place. I'm leaving the ones on the sides of the house up.

Way too early to say where Ivan goes after entering the carribean, but the possibility is certainly there that we're affected.

[Brent]

The track reminds me of Georges. He tracked across the Northern Islands and Puerto Rico, then over Hispanola and then NW over Eastern Cuba.

[x-y-no]

The track reminds me of Georges. He tracked across the Northern Islands and Puerto Rico, then over Hispanola and then NW over Eastern Cuba.

Yes, a lot like Georges. The good thing (for the US) with a track like that is that interaction with Hispaniola and eastern Cuba tears storms up. Would be terrible for the DR and Haiti, though.

[HURAKAN]

The track reminds me of Georges. He tracked across the Northern Islands and Puerto Rico, then over Hispanola and then NW over Eastern Cuba.

This track is more related to Hurricane Flora in 1963 ...

TAKE A LOOK!

[x-y-no]

The track reminds me of Georges. He tracked across the Northern Islands and Puerto Rico, then over Hispanola and then NW over Eastern Cuba.

This track is more related to Hurricane Flora in 1963 ...

TAKE A LOOK!

Hmmm ... you're right ... George tracked quite a bit further north early on.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199807.asp

That Flora track is pretty freaky ... stopped and turned around just over eastern Cuba ...

[Patrick99]

lol i would leave them up...

I'm not predicting anything this far out, but take a look at this...


-Eric

You mean we're almost in their 5-day forecast cone, already?? hahaha I know that can change, but still...

[hookemfins]

In 1979 David was around 120 miles further N but took a similar path.


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at197904.asp

[Patrick99]

The track reminds me of Georges. He tracked across the Northern Islands and Puerto Rico, then over Hispanola and then NW over Eastern Cuba.

This track is more related to Hurricane Flora in 1963 ...

TAKE A LOOK!

One main difference I can see is that Flora was a very late September through October storm. It seems unlikely to me, not impossible, but unlikely, that we'd get such a strong trough near that area that would make Ivan take an about face. Especially given the apparent pattern so far this season. Early to mid-September is still climatological prime time for SE US/GOM landfalling Cape Verde hurricanes.

[CourierPR]

Patrick, if this keeps up people will start referring to Floridians as "coneheads."

[Patrick99]

Patrick, if this keeps up people will start referring to Floridians as "coneheads."

This is the Year of the Cone.

BTW, random observation - starting to get some lightning and thunder down here in Miami with some of these bands this morning/afternoon.

[BayouVenteux]

That Flora track is pretty freaky ... stopped and turned around just over eastern Cuba ...

Not too freaky actually. I'm only guessing, but judging from past 'cane-watching experience and the dates of Flora (late September/early October) It looks like she probably rounded the periphery of a strong Atlantic ridge, only to reach it's western extent in the Caribbean, stall over E Cuba, then get picked up and whisked NEward by a climatologically typical, E'ward advancing continental trough.

Just my opinion, but unfortunately, I don't think Ivan will meet the same fate.

[anjou]

I wondering if I should leave my shutters up? I am west of Ft Lauderdale.

MSNBC just recently had a reporter in Orlando quoting the sheriff as recommending that people even there not take their plywood down tomorrow, due to a potential threat soon enough from Ivan. (Which is looking like if it's going to hit Florida... though that's still very uncertain... it would be next weekend.)

By the way, there were a lot of video shots early on in S. Florida showing hurricane shutters ripping up from the sides... this may have been due to not affixing them with as many fasteners as recommend - I don't know about that - but seems good to reiterate: make sure your plywood or shutters are substantial and well-affixed.

[btsgmdad]

I heard reports yesterday that officials were recommending people leave all but one or two shutters up due to the approach of Ivan the Terrible.

[T'Bonz]

Gak! It's up to 125 mph!

My plywood is staying UP!

Bonz in Coral Springs.

[AlabamaDave]

I can't even begin to believe the 5-day TPC track for Ivan. This would be too ironic if Florida winds up escaping the full fury of Frances only to get hammered by Ivan. I guess the only good news (for Florida) is the possibility of weakening when the storm crosses the Greater Antilles (bad news, of course, for the poor people in Cuba and on Hispaniola). I also hope this does not track into the Bahamas. If any location suffered immeasurably from Frances, it was the Bahamas.

[Sanibel]

It will go further north than that track...