2pm Frances-75 mph winds

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 47a

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 05, 2004

...Frances weakening as it moves across the peninsula...heading for
the Gulf of Mexico...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida from
the mouth of the Suwannee River to Destin.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from north of Deerfield Beach northward to Flagler Beach...including
Lake Okeechobee. The Hurricane Warning for this area will likely be
downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning later this afternoon.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida
Peninsula...on the West Coast...from the Suwannee River southward
around the peninsula to Deerfield Beach...and for all of the Florida
Keys...including Florida Bay and the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Flagler
Beach to Altamaha Sound.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
by radar near latitude 27.9 north...longitude 81.7 west...or about
55 miles east of Tampa Florida.

The large circulation of Frances is moving toward the west-northwest
near 9 mph. A continued west to west-northwestward track across
the peninsula is expected today and Frances should move over the
Gulf of Mexico late tonight or Monday morning.

Radar wind velocity data suggest that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to 75 mph...with higher gusts. Some additional weakening
is expected this afternoon as the core of Frances moves over land.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200
miles. Stronger winds...especially in gusts...are likely in high
rise buildings. A wind gust of 74 mph was recently reported at
Daytona Beach.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
still possible near and to the north of where the center made
landfall on the Florida East Coast but should gradually subside.

Storm surge flooding of 5 feet above normal levels is expected in
Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest Florida coast...storm surge
flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels is expected south
of the path of Frances. Storm surge flooding of up to 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels is expected along the northeast Gulf Coast
of Florida.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...with locally higher amounts...
to near 20 inches...are expected over the Florida Peninsula in
association with Frances.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of central and North
Florida today.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...27.9 N... 81.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75
mph. Minimum central pressure... 980 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.

[Thunder44]

It will probably be downgraded to strong TS next advisory. But it probably make it offshore early tonight.

[HURAKAN]

Because of its still good organization and closeness to the coast, I think it has a good porcentage to become once again a strong Cat. 1 hurricane after it emerges to the Gulf of Mexico.

[Stormcenter]

Because of its still good organization and closeness to the coast, I think it has a good porcentage to become once again a strong Cat. 1 hurricane after it emerges to the Gulf of Mexico.

Agree on all points.

[caneman]

Because of its still good organization and closeness to the coast, I think it has a good porcentage to become once again a strong Cat. 1 hurricane after it emerges to the Gulf of Mexico.

Agree on all points.

I don't understand how they are showing Pasco as the exit point it is clear that Pinellas county will be the exit point. It has been moving due West. They just reposted a wind gust of 81 mph in Lakeland.

[CFL]

If this exits further south I wonder if these warnings will be extended futher west.

[wxman57]

I get a movement of 287 deg at 11 kts zoomed in on my radar (GARP) and using my cursor to measure the movement for the past hour. Frances took a NW-NNW jog the previous few hours. Newer model data suggest a sharper right turn after reaching the NE GOM. Most of the circulation will remain over land, so significant strengthening isn't likely during the brief period that the center will be offshore.

[mobilebay]

I get a movement of 287 deg at 11 kts zoomed in on my radar (GARP) and using my cursor to measure the movement for the past hour. Frances took a NW-NNW jog the previous few hours. Newer model data suggest a sharper right turn after reaching the NE GOM. Most of the circulation will remain over land, so significant strengthening isn't likely during the brief period that the center will be offshore.

Of the 12Z motels the Nogaps,Bamm.bammd,GFDL,GFS ALL take this over water and all but the GFDL or slightly further west. The only model the I've seen that supports your theory is the UKMET. Anyway Frances seems to be outrunning the model daa anyway.

[Stormcenter]

I get a movement of 287 deg at 11 kts zoomed in on my radar (GARP) and using my cursor to measure the movement for the past hour. Frances took a NW-NNW jog the previous few hours. Newer model data suggest a sharper right turn after reaching the NE GOM. Most of the circulation will remain over land, so significant strengthening isn't likely during the brief period that the center will be offshore.

NNW?

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis