Historically Ivan's Position Indicates Florida Under the Gun

[shimmer]

There were four hurricanes from 1851-2004 within 150nm of Ivan position of 10.2N and 46.9W. Joyce 2000 terminated in near Tobago. The great Miami Huricane of 1947. David [1979] which ran up the entire east coast of Florida. And finally, the the fish storm of 1898 which never got past 70W. Southern Florida, at least historically, is under the gun again.

[CourierPR]

The year Andrew hit SFla, I remember Dr. William Gray saying that Florida was a sitting duck.

[Canelaw99]

I believe we are this year as well. I suppose, in a way, we've been overdue (statistically anyway), but sheesh....

[wsquared77]

I think I remember hearing somewhere that (statistically) we (Miami) should get a storm every year. I'd say we're way overdue...Of course I hope statistics are way off in this instance!

[Patrick99]

I think Ivan could be at a similar location near the DR and Cuba, at the same time of the month, as was the great hurricane of 1919. I'm not saying it will do something similar......just trying to look at what Ivan might do. Ivan probably won't devastate Key West as a Cat. 4. But, if it's in that position, it's not a stretch to think Ivan could be a Keys storm, imo.