Ivan and the GOM threat.

[opera ghost]

Okay- I'm not seeing much discussion of Ivan making it into the GOM and, as I'm still trying to learn, I'd like someone to help me understand why. I'm not saying that I think it will or should... only that I want to understand what would steer it away.

Is it- Ivan would be pulled north by something before he got west enough?

Or- There is something that he would bounce off of and get steered east?

Obviously until it's north of my area or already inland- I'm not going to ignore it or any potential thret- but are the chances remote or just unlikely that it would go into the GOM? I'm not looking for someone to pull out the crystal ball- I know there's no true predictions- but talk to me about models and what we think is going to happen with the steering currants.

I want to learn so I can eventully figgure it out on my own.

[BayouVenteux]

I think the simple fact is that the possibility still exists, but it lies too far outside the 120-hour time frame for anyone--and I mean ANYONE, to have a clear picture of if and where Ivan will enter the Gulf of Mexico.

[southerngale]

Well, I'm certainly not the one to teach you anything. I need to learn more myself.

But, some of our amateur forecasters were in chat saying it could make it into the GOM and they weren't sure of the poleward turn indicated by most of the models. The reasoning was that there's supposed to be a huge western trough which means a huge eastern ridge in response. Of course it's early and it's all speculation now. The models could very well end up being right. I hope not for Florida's sake. I'd prefer them be too south and this thing goes fishing. Nobody deserves this monster.