Ivan does have his faults

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
B-Bear
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 539
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 10:43 am

Ivan does have his faults

#1 Postby B-Bear » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:17 am

Image

Granted, Ivan has been an impressive storm. But he does have his faults.

To begin with, he has had this persistent blob of energy on his southwest quadrant--for about as long as he has been a major hurricane--and he doesn't seem to want to wrap it into himself. At first I thought it might be because of his southern latitude, but the blob has persisted, and, at times, it has even looked worse as he has traveled north. I don't really understand what it is or why he can't wrap it into himself, especially given how strong he is.

Second, he wound himself up very tight and had no eye to speak of, yet didn't go through an eye wall recycling phase as early as I thought he would. I'm a little puzzled by that too, and he continues to seem like he is struggling to form a new eye.

Third, I'm not all that impressed with his outflow. For as powerful a storm as he is, I thought we'd see more impressive outflow--especially given the favorable conditions he is in.

So he's an impressive storm, but he does, in my opinion, have his faults. I'm not suggesting he's going to dry up and blow away, by any means. But the most extreme storms--and extreme is exactly what he seems to want to be--have to have ideal conditions in order to sustain their intensity. Even minor flaws can inhibit a storm's development beyond a certain point, so I'm curious as to how this will all play out.

Does anybody else see some of these things and believe he will have to resolve them if he plans on retaining high intensity?
0 likes   

B-Bear
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 539
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 10:43 am

#2 Postby B-Bear » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:41 am

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

Click on the link and watch the loop of Ivan. His eye is just to the east of that line that separates the main part of the storm from the blob to the southeast. The winds wrapping around him seem to be splitting the main storm and the blob instead of wrapping around the whole thing, and that appears to be limiting his outflow to the south.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#3 Postby Ixolib » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:46 am

[quote="B-Bear"]http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

Click on the link and watch the loop of Ivan. His eye is just to the east of that line that separates the main part of the storm from the blob to the southeast. The winds wrapping around him seem to be splitting the main storm and the blob instead of wrapping around the whole thing, and that appears to be limiting his outflow to the south.[/quote

Considering the proximity to South America, is that having any significant impact on hindering the wrap or the southerly outflow?
0 likes   

B-Bear
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 539
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 10:43 am

#4 Postby B-Bear » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:50 am

I personally don't think his proximity to land is the issue. He's been doing this for quite some time now--even before he was all that close to land. It's something else. Perhaps his latitude? But it doesn't seem to be resolving any as he gets further north. I'm really interested in hearing what some others think about this.

I do see it as a big problem for his development is he can't get it resolved.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38264
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#5 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:01 am

There is no reason right now. There's no shear, no dry air. The rapid intensification index is 9 times the normal mean. Eyewall replacement?
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#6 Postby AussieMark » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:03 am

I think it could be a eyewall replacement.

but thats just me
0 likes   

B-Bear
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 539
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 10:43 am

#7 Postby B-Bear » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:05 am

Yeah, but it's been there almost from the start--even before eye wall replacement was an issue.
0 likes   

B-Bear
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 539
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 10:43 am

#8 Postby B-Bear » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:20 am

Image

Maybe Ivan is eavesdropping on our conversation. It looks like he's trying to wrap himself up in a nice neat organized package--with the new eye possibly forming right between the main storm and the blob of energy to the south.

Can he pull it off???? I guess we'll find out soon enough.
0 likes   

clueless newbie
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 137
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 9:11 pm

#9 Postby clueless newbie » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:24 am

I have been wondering about the same thing, B-Bear. At some moments it looked like that SW lump would be finally wrapped in, but it keeps reappearing.

It has been there from the time Ivan was only a tropical depression. At that time some people noted it looks like fetus: A stream coming from N splitting into two counterrotating swirls - one to the right, one to the left. The right one developed into Ivan. The left one is obviously much weaker as it must fight agains coriolis force, but still persistent. Since Ivan is so low, the left one had a chance to survive. Maybe I am wrong, but this is the only explanation I have.

Btw, on the last images Ivan looks to be really disorganized. I would not be surprised if it went from Cat4 to Cat1/TS as fast as it went up. Ivan had for a while amazing inner core structure, but had always had problems wrapping up the outlying convection. Now that the inner core looks really damaged, it does not have that much going for him.
0 likes   

User avatar
Innotech
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1031
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
Contact:

#10 Postby Innotech » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:26 am

Im beginning to think Ivan rapidly intensified and started an eyewall replacement, but is perhaps moving too quickly and the LLC is outrunnig the convection and winds are dereasing as a result of this elongation.
0 likes   

FungusMoldlyColdcuts

#11 Postby FungusMoldlyColdcuts » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:27 am

um, this system has everything going for it...this storm was a newborn and exploded into a compact cat3. now it's going through a cycle which will allow him to expand and reverse the implosion
0 likes   

B-Bear
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 539
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 10:43 am

#12 Postby B-Bear » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:29 am

FungusMoldlyColdcuts wrote:um, this system has everything going for it...this storm was a newborn and exploded into a compact cat3. now it's going through a cycle which will allow him to expand and reverse the implosion


Maybe. I'm just not sure about that yet. It could be. Or it could be he's moving too fast to reorganize, as was previously suggested. Or it could be that he's too close to the equator and not spinning well enough to reorganize after beginning an eye wall recycling phase.
0 likes   

OtherHD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2192
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 10:01 am
Location: San Antonio, TX

#13 Postby OtherHD » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:29 am

Yikes, Ivan really let himself go overnight. Great news!
0 likes   

User avatar
AussieMark
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5858
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
Location: near Sydney, Australia

#14 Postby AussieMark » Mon Sep 06, 2004 8:31 am

lots of water between here and the Greater Antilles.

he can get up strength before then.
0 likes   

B-Bear
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 539
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2004 10:43 am

#15 Postby B-Bear » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:29 pm

Well, as I suspected, Ivan has not yet overcome his faults. I wish I understood a little better why he's having such difficulty assimilating that blob of energy to his southwest quadrant. It appears he keeps trying to, but just can't get it done. I think he's going to have a hard time getting his act together until he achieves that objective.
0 likes   

calidoug
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 480
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:13 pm

#16 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:39 pm

I think you haven't seen the latest satellite photos...
0 likes   

User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1545
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#17 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:41 pm

Just because Frances underwent an abnormally high number of ERC's (practically beginning another anew as soon as one was completed) don't assume all major hurricanes have such frequent ERC's.
0 likes   

User avatar
Banditt
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 10:53 am
Location: Mobile, Al.

#18 Postby Banditt » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:42 pm

I think his location has a great deal to do with his confusion. The further he goes north of the equator, the more organized he will become. :beam:
0 likes   

btsgmdad
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 371
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 9:51 am
Location: Lincoln Park, MI

#19 Postby btsgmdad » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:44 pm

I agree, the storm is too far south to get its act completely back together. Its really amazing to see how awesome it looked yesterday that far south.
0 likes   

calidoug
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 480
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:13 pm

#20 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:49 pm

Its latitude is not a problem.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hurricane2022, Teban54 and 375 guests