rainfall/tornado potential

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hey everyone. Up here in central Maryland, all is quiet. But the question after Frances makes landfall in Florida is what will happen later this week? For instance where will Frances go? The latest track takes Frances remnants over the eastern Ohio Valley area. So most certainly the mountains west of us could see a very heavy swath of rainfall. But areas east of the mountains into Washington DC and Baltimore will likely not see much at all assuming this path continues with Frances remnants. We must remember though that most of the action will be north and east of the center of circulation. So areas north and west of DC and Baltimore could see a heavy rain potential. Rainfall totals could amount to several inches in areas near the path of Frances.

Further south at landfall along the Florida Panhandle, rainfall totals could potentially be higher than just several inches because of the slower forward motion of this system. 6-10 inches is likely in the Panhandle area today. Also severe weather is a threat across eastern Georgia and into north central Florida with a tornado watch in effect through the morning. A tornado warning was issued recently for central Polk County. Law enforcement reported a tornado on the ground near Bartow moving northeast at around 25 mph. Landfalling tropical systems can sometimes produce tornadoes, most of which are rain wrapped and hard to see. But that is something to keep in mind folks if you're in the Florida Peninsula and into eastern Georgia today. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, seek shelter immediately. While these tornadoes are short lived and weak, they are dangerous and hard to see because they're typically rain wrapped. Hence don't wait until you see it coming.

Ivan at last check is up to 125 mph and is centered about 485 miles east southeast of Barbados.


Jim