Ivan Intensifying Again

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MWatkins
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Ivan Intensifying Again

#1 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:56 am

Satellite imagery from early this afternoon (or I guess late this morning) indicates that the eye of Ivan is becoming better defined and the CDO more circular.

This suggests that Ivan is starting to strengthen as it moves rapidly westward...I wonder exactly how stong this will be when recon gets out there later.

MW
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#2 Postby wx247 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 10:59 am

Agreed. I am anxiously awaiting word from recon. It looks stronger than the 110 KTS from the 11 am advisory IMHO.
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#3 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:00 am

I was just going to post about this. That odd discrete blob of convection to the SW is starting to get wrapped in, and his outflow is improving to the SW (not so much to the south yet, bu I think that's coming).
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#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:00 am

This is the smallest eye that I have ever seen, even smaller than cyclone tracy
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#5 Postby Innotech » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:02 am

Cat 3, 120 mph sustained...pressure between 950-960 is my guess
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#6 Postby Aquawind » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:07 am

Visable sure does look impressive..Bring on Recon..
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#7 Postby canegrl04 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:14 am

Another :blowup:
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#8 Postby B-Bear » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:21 am

Derek Ortt wrote:This is the smallest eye that I have ever seen, even smaller than cyclone tracy


I noticed that too, Derek. And I couldn't help but ask myself: "How in the hell is this storm able to maintain such intensity with such a minute eye?"
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Derek Ortt

#9 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:22 am

it means the pressure gradient is incredibly tight or there is some serious disorganization. Recon could find anything from a cat 1 to a strong 4
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#10 Postby JayPSU » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:26 am

He looks like crap out there right now. Amazing how quickly a storm can become a cat 4, then weaken to probably a weak cat 1 currently. http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... large.html
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#11 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:26 am

Derek Ortt wrote:it means the pressure gradient is incredibly tight or there is some serious disorganization. Recon could find anything from a cat 1 to a strong 4


I'm leaning toward the latter...unfortunately...but I suppose we could have a pinhole-type eye.

MW
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Derek Ortt

#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:27 am

leaning towards disorganization or tight pressure gradient?
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#13 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:29 am

Derek Ortt wrote:it means the pressure gradient is incredibly tight or there is some serious disorganization. Recon could find anything from a cat 1 to a strong 4


I don't believe for a moment that this is a Cat. 1. Cat 3 or better, IMHO.
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#14 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:29 am

Derek Ortt wrote:leaning towards disorganization or tight pressure gradient?


Tight gradient...although the good visible but shoddy ir presentations suggest some disorganization...some conflicting signals here.

I suppose we'll find out soon enough.

MW
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#15 Postby Cid 98 » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:31 am

Derrick, Any chance Ivan will be a fish? Is it too far out to tell?
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#16 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:32 am

MWatkins wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:leaning towards disorganization or tight pressure gradient?


Tight gradient...although the good visible but shoddy ir presentations suggest some disorganization...some conflicting signals here.

I suppose we'll find out soon enough.

MW


I see a hint of that tiny eye in the last IR frame. And he's wrapping in the convection to the W and SW.
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#17 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:32 am

Outflow is exploding again, which usually indicates intensification.
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#18 Postby btsgmdad » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:33 am

I just looked at the images my self and this storm looks nothing like it did yesterday. Maybe the west motion toward South America is doing it in?
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Derek Ortt

#19 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:33 am

it better turn within the next 12 hours if it is going to be a fish.

The chances are better for someone winning a fight, unarmed, with a salt water crocodile than there is of this missing land completely
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#20 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 06, 2004 11:35 am

Chance of fish is probably < 5% now. More likely to run into the Yucatan, than be a fish, IMO, but I consider both unlikely.
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