Tropical Storm Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 51a
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 06, 2004
...Frances making landfall near St. Marks Florida...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from the Suwanee river to
Indian Pass but will likely be dongraded to Tropical Storm Warning
later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from the Suwanee river to
Anna Maria Island and from Indian Pass to Destin.
Radar and surface observations indicate that at 2 PM EDT...1800z...
the center of Tropical Storm Frances was crossing the coast in the
vicinity of latitude 30.1 north... longitude 84.1 west...near St.
Marks Florida.
Frances is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph. On this
track...the center of Frances should move well inland during the
next 12 to 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph...with higher gusts.
Because Frances is moving inland the chances of becoming a
hurricane have diminished.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the
center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb...28.94 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 2 to 5 feet above normal tide levels is
expected south of Cedar Key. Storm surge flooding of 5 to
10 feet above normal tide levels is expected along the northeast
Gulf Coast of Florida to the north of Cedar Key...especially to the
east of the track. In addition...large and dangerous battering
waves can be expected in areas of strong onshore flow.
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...
are expected over portions of the southeastern United States...
especially along and to the east of the path of Frances.
Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of north and
central Florida and the Florida Panhandle...and portions of Alabama
and Georgia.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...30.1 N... 84.1 W. Movement
north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 65 mph.
Minimum central pressure...980 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Avila
2pm Frances-65 mph winds, landfall at St. Marks
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