2 PM=Ivan more weak 115 mph 969 mbs

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cycloneye
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2 PM=Ivan more weak 115 mph 969 mbs

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:00 pm

HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST MON SEP 06 2004

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IVAN WEAKER BUT STILL DANGEROUS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST.
VINCENT... THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...
580 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH ...35
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
HOWEVER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR
115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER IVAN MAY
RE-STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 969
MB...28.61 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.4 N... 54.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER PASCH
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:01 pm

But they say that Ivan may get stronger before it reaches the islands.
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#3 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:02 pm

Wow. 969mb.
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#4 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:02 pm

Well it completely fell apart.
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#5 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:03 pm

969 is awfully high for even a Weak Cat 3.
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#6 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:04 pm

Not quite. He continues to become more and more organized.
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:05 pm

969 was higher than Frances's pressure.
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#8 Postby btsgmdad » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:06 pm

Definitely not the storm it was yesterday, wonder if it already bombed out.
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#9 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:08 pm

Could it have been an attempted ERC plus a SAL surge or maybe shear?
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:08 pm

Could those "preliminary reports" be not quite right?
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:10 pm

Yesterday around 10 PM I talked with John Morales and he told me, "I think Iván is already peaking".
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#12 Postby calidoug » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:11 pm

Could be-- look at the 17:15Z IR-- it is finally "ingesting" the SW blob... and that may be a new larger eye starting to form just SW of the coldest convection.

Overall organization looks markedly better than earlier today.
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#13 Postby btsgmdad » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:14 pm

I thought I saw a new eye trying to form as well.
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#14 Postby x-y-no » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:20 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Could those "preliminary reports" be not quite right?


The vortex message doesn't say extrap, so this is a dropsonde measurement. Pretty sure to be accurate.

I think he's getting his act together, though. Once the new band forming out of the SW blob bets connected, I expect to see some better organization of the center.

Middling to strong Cat 3 by the 11pm advisory, IMHO.
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