Ivan is a dud!

hurricane_lover · #1 Postby **hurricane_lover** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:06 pm

He is dropping faster than a Kobe Bryant rape charge.

btsgmdad · #2 Postby **btsgmdad** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:07 pm

I think everyone here would be glad to see a dud right about now!

mkapw · #3 Postby **mkapw** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:08 pm

LOL .... and this is a good thing. Ivan I mean ....
Kobe ... you actually thought this would go to trial?

Tornado_Chaser2005 · #4 Postby **Tornado_Chaser2005** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:08 pm

How is he dropping? He's still maintaining hurricane status. Doesn't mean he won't strengthen again

southerngale · #5 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:10 pm

I definitely wouldn't call him a dud and I doubt the people of Barbados will either. :roll:

Of course we can hope it dies a quick death before slamming into the islands!

Opal storm · #6 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:11 pm

Obviously you don't know what a "dud" is. :lol:

Frances is a dud,Ivan is far from a dud.

x-y-no · #7 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:14 pm

Nonsense. While there's now hope that he's not a monster crossing the widward islands, I wouldn't even be confident of that. I say he's back to a strong Cat 3 by the 11pm advisory.

calidoug · #8 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:18 pm

The briefest glance at satellite imagery confirms he's been improving in organization since this morning. If anything, he was overestimated yesterday, weakened overnight, and is now reorganizing into a larger storm. Look at the outflow! Look at the shape of the convection!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#9 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:23 pm

He IS looking better on those later loops, IMO...

#10 Postby **abajan** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:41 pm

I think it'll weaken some more by 5:00 PM update. Looks like it's sucking in dry air to me.

I also think that, unless it goes into a rapid strenghtening phase, it will pass further south of Barbados than previously projected.

Of course, all of this is pure conjecture on my part and I will certainly not let my guard down.

calidoug · #11 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:48 pm

It may go further south of you...

But it sure doesn't look like there's a dry air issue at all.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

The air in front the storm is not that dry at all.

tdess02 · #12 Postby **tdess02** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:51 pm

Guess Ivan is a DUD because he wont be visiting the Carolinas! If the forecast track was heading towards the Carolinas, I bet Hurricane -Lover would be building the storm up to a CAT 5 by now!

DoctorHurricane2003 · #13 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:56 pm

Hurricane_Lover, I invite you to read or reread and get more understanding of my recent topic "Let's Not Start This Again.........IMPORTANT REMINDER TO ALL" especially since "ALL" includes you.

Please don't lead people into a false since of security......I GUESS if you THINK he is going to die....you can say "I believe he will dissipate soon" or something on the level.......but not flat out say "He IS dying"...because he's not, if you would look at the latest satellite pictures.

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 1:58 pm

hurricane_lover....Have a drink, or two, and look at this image, if you think Ivan's a dud.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

Thunder44 · #15 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:02 pm

Recon finding a weaker storm, I believe is due to the TPC over estimating the storm strength this morning. It probably weaken much more last night, than was believed. Now storm looks more organzied than earlier. I say it's really on a strengthning trend now.

#16 Postby **wx247** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:15 pm

"Dud" is hardly the word for it. 115 mph is not a shabby storm.

Texasblu · #17 Postby **Texasblu** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:18 pm

Hurricane_lover - - - - - weren't you the poster who kept saying that Frances was not going to be a Florida event but go up to the Carolinas? I can't speak for everybody, but as for myself, since I live so close to the GOM, I will be keeping a very close watch on this one. I won't consider it a dud until I hear proof positive that it has totally dissapated. :raincloud:

redfishben · #18 Postby **redfishben** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:35 pm

On these images, it appears that the outfolw is good to the north and east but less good on the west and esp. southwest. What is cousing this lesser outflow?

#19 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:38 pm

calidoug wrote:The briefest glance at satellite imagery confirms he's been improving in organization since this morning. If anything, he was overestimated yesterday, weakened overnight, and is now reorganizing into a larger storm. Look at the outflow! Look at the shape of the convection!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Going to have to defer to calidoug here...looking better by the hour unfortunately.

MW

x-y-no · #20 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Sep 06, 2004 2:38 pm

redfishben wrote:On these images, it appears that the outfolw is good to the north and east but less good on the west and esp. southwest. What is cousing this lesser outflow?

Interaction with upper level winds off of South America, I think. Take a look at the direction the cloud tops are expanding in the cells popping over the continent.

Ivan is a dud!

Ivan is a dud!

A question for the more knowledgable.

Re: A question for the more knowledgable.

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