My Take on Ivan..............

[Dean4Storms]

Ivan was weaker than thought once Recon. arrived this afternoon (Winds @ 105mph sustained and pressure @ 968mb or 28.59 inches) and continues on a wnw track which should take him passing south of the Island of Barbados through the Windwards and into the Eastern Carib. over the next few days (Tues, Wed, Thur). By Friday midday I place Ivan over or just north of the island of Jamaica (near 19n 78w) and south of the western tip of Cuba. I believe Ivan remains influenced by the ridging over the SW Atlantic at this point and pretty much ignore this possible weakness which is just speculation. Another trough is forecasted to begin digging over the west come next weekend. Any digging trough over the west will just pump the ridge over the SE CONUS and the Atlantic. Day 5: By midday Sat. I expect Ivan to be near the Isle of Pines, Cuba (22n 83W) making more of a gradual NW turn between Friday and Sat. and into the SE GOM come Sunday. Keep in mind that Ivan is caught under an even quicker pushing ridge and flow to the west than Frances was and this alone will inhibit to much strength (I think Cat. 4 tops) and too quick of a turn as this ridge pushes all the way back over Florida.

Historically, I've gone clear back to 1900 and only 1 storm has ever passed south of Barbados on a wnw track into the Carib. and eventually went east of Key West and that was Hazel in 1954. Hazel made an abrupt stall and turn almost due north near 73w over Hispaniola and again almost due north into North Carolina. I don't give this type of scenario one iota of a chance with the current synopsis. Now true, you can find some that passed into the very NE corner of the Carib. that also passed well north of Barbados, but historically they have tracked 99% of the time westward either into Central America, MX. or into the GOM toward the Gulf Coast States.

Overall: Ivan should track mostly wnw fluctuating between a Cat 3 and Cat 4 until Day 4 to Day 5 when Ivan should begin rounding the ridging toward the Gulf of Mexico. Of course I can't say with anything better than a guess at this point as to where along the Gulf coast Ivan would end up. Probably get a better picture by Friday.


This is not any official forecast.

[Dean4Storms]

NHC directly on top of my track posted yesterday afternoon @ their 11am Sept. 7 advisory.

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