00:00 Models=moving 265 21kt,Models shift more west

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148497
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

00:00 Models=moving 265 21kt,Models shift more west

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:35 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040907 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040907 0000 040907 1200 040908 0000 040908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 56.3W 11.9N 59.3W 12.7N 62.2W 13.5N 65.2W
BAMM 11.3N 56.3W 11.6N 59.8W 12.0N 63.3W 12.8N 66.7W
A98E 11.3N 56.3W 10.8N 60.4W 10.8N 64.0W 11.5N 67.1W
LBAR 11.3N 56.3W 11.6N 60.0W 12.1N 63.8W 12.8N 67.7W
SHIP 90KTS 87KTS 88KTS 91KTS
DSHP 90KTS 87KTS 88KTS 91KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040909 0000 040910 0000 040911 0000 040912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 68.3W 16.9N 73.5W 18.2N 77.1W 19.4N 80.0W
BAMM 13.9N 69.9W 16.1N 75.4W 17.3N 79.3W 18.2N 82.2W
A98E 12.5N 69.6W 14.7N 73.7W 16.9N 77.0W 19.4N 79.6W
LBAR 13.8N 71.6W 16.4N 77.6W 17.2N 79.6W 18.4N 82.8W
SHIP 95KTS 99KTS 104KTS 107KTS
DSHP 95KTS 99KTS 91KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 56.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 52.5W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 48.5W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 110KT
CENPRS = 964MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 120NM

Wow it is racing and because of that the models are responding to a more west track into the western caribbean and GOM.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#2 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:41 pm

*whistling* ...

Continuing the trend WEST ...
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38265
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#3 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:42 pm

All are SOUTH of Cuba now!

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Guest

#4 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:47 pm

eerily simliar to Charley. Poor Florida...
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#5 Postby Guest » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:48 pm

HKY_WX2 wrote:eerily simliar to Charley. Poor Florida...


Im actually thinking west of FLA this time, but very early in the ballgame right now...

chow...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9492
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

#6 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:48 pm

looks like that about covers the GOM track / landfall discussion..... :lol: ...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
~SirCane
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 287
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 9:55 pm
Location: Pensacola, FL
Contact:
Contact ~SirCane

#7 Postby ~SirCane » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:52 pm

Scary stuff.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

#8 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:54 pm

None of this bodes well for Alabama, Mississippi, Louisana, and Texas
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#9 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:54 pm

HKY_WX2 wrote:
HKY_WX2 wrote:eerily simliar to Charley. Poor Florida...


Im actually thinking west of FLA this time, but very early in the ballgame right now...

chow...


IF Ivan continues screaming WEST ... guidance will continue to TREND west, and Florida MIGHT actually get a break this time ...

SF
0 likes   
Top
soonertwister
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1091
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 2:52 pm

#10 Postby soonertwister » Mon Sep 06, 2004 7:56 pm

HKY_WX2 wrote:eerily simliar to Charley. Poor Florida...


I guess you could call Ivan eerily similar to Charley, if you hadn't been paying attention.

Get off your pat quote and state why this storm is "eerily similar". I don't think you can. More like hurricane Mitch, if you ask me. Eastern GOM looks like an outlier scenario to me at this time.

I'm sorry if I upset you, but I see a lot of similar posts on this board, and yours just happened to be the one that set me off.

I'll try to behave and be sheepish in the future when someone compares one storm to another, and I'll try not to mention alternatives. I wouldn't want to be unpopular around here... even though I'm already getting that reputation.

:na:
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, hurricanes1234 and 244 guests