NHC forecast is shifted southward 11 AM,Watch out Gomers!!

[cycloneye]

** WTNT44 KNHC 071455 ***
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004

LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS
MORNING INDICATED THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 963 MB AND THE PEAK
WIND AT FLIGHT LEVEL WAS 116 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
CURRENTLY...THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT A LARGE-UPPER
LOW IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAY INDUCE SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE.
THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
THAT SHOWS A 20-KNOT SOUTHERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE...WHICH
COULD HALT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ULTIMATELY MOVE THE UPPER-LOW WESTWARD LEAVING A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IVAN IS A POWERFUL HURRICANE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN FIVE DAYS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
HURRICANE IS SOUTH A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
STEERING THE HURRICANE WESTWARD. IN TIME...A LARGE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE
ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOW FAR NORTH THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE DEPENDS ON
THE INTENSITY OF TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS VARIES
WITH MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A
LITTLE BIT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 11.8N 60.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 12.3N 62.5W 105 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 13.0N 65.6W 110 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 14.0N 68.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 15.0N 71.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 17.5N 76.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 19.5N 80.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 22.0N 83.0W 120 KT

Towards the island of Youth that you remember Charley.Oh boy not another one to Florida.

[Brent]

I'm worried about the Gulf...

As long as there is no monster trough like with Charley, I think the Florida Peninsula is safe.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 1453W5.gif

Here is the latest grafic from 11 AM.Not only Florida but points west in the gulf coast have to watch this monster.

[CFL]

Gomers are watching - believe me! Now I guess it's a matter of where exactly that trough will be if this trend holds true.

[Canelaw99]

I just can't stand the constant flip-flopping of these forecast paths. At the 11pm advisory, the path was closer to this one, then as of 5am, it was bringing it more north towards FL, now it's back south again. Does the NHC have stock in the high blood pressure med companies or something? Geez....

[Portastorm]

Yes, we are watching alright!

It is hard to imagine Florida getting hit with three major hurricanes within 5 weeks ... so I'm guessing Ivan "the Terrible" threatens the central or western GOM. Good grief, our friends in Florida don't need any more tropical misery!

[MWatkins]

I just the constant flip-flopping of these forecast paths. At the 11pm advisory, the path was closer to this one, then as of 5am, it was bringing it more north towards FL, now it's back south again. Does the NHC have stock in the high blood pressure med companies or something? Geez....

No...for some reason when synoptic meteorology is included in the forecast...we get one thing...and when a forecaster has a paticular affinity for a model or two with no explaination as to why...we get another.

12Z model guidance will start to roll in within the hour and we will have an idea as to which way we should lean...I'll chime in with some model analysis when it's done and I'm sure others here will too.

MW

[cycloneye]

It will be a matter of the timing between the trough and the ridge how they will be positioned at the time Ivan gets to the GOM.

[Canelaw99]

Thanks MW - although I think we ought to look into the shareholders of some of those BP med companies

[CaneCurious]

Thanks MW and Cyclone. I really respect your opinions and analyses. Keep us posted.

[jlauderdal]

I just the constant flip-flopping of these forecast paths. At the 11pm advisory, the path was closer to this one, then as of 5am, it was bringing it more north towards FL, now it's back south again. Does the NHC have stock in the high blood pressure med companies or something? Geez....

No...for some reason when synoptic meteorology is included in the forecast...we get one thing...and when a forecaster has a paticular affinity for a model or two with no explaination as to why...we get another.

12Z model guidance will start to roll in within the hour and we will have an idea as to which way we should lean...I'll chime in with some model analysis when it's done and I'm sure others here will too.

MW

i couldnt have said it better. I have a hard time believing that avila just rolls these discos out without anyone seeing them but than again maybe he does. I posted last week that in spite of his forecast NHC did a great job on the track because they almost always adjusted his back to where they had it.

[NateFLA]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

The NOGAPS model just makes me want to lay down and die! LoL.... I can't stand another.

[canegrl04]

I would think that by tomorrow,we will reach a pivotal point in forecasting of Ivan.Whereever the models are shifted too,thats likely where Ivan will go,since landfall on the US is expected over the weekend,if it does.