12Z GFS - southwest of Jamaica

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x-y-no
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12Z GFS - southwest of Jamaica

#1 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:14 am

at 96:

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#2 Postby btsgmdad » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:22 am

Every model run I see put this storm on a Charley-type track. I just pray that its not Charley-type intensity. :(
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#3 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:27 am

btsgmdad wrote:Every model run I see put this storm on a Charley-type track. I just pray that its not Charley-type intensity. :(


This run sure looks like Charley redux. Straight across the narrow neck of Cuba again ...

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#4 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:28 am

btsgmdad wrote:Every model run I see put this storm on a Charley-type track. I just pray that its not Charley-type intensity. :(


It will a totally different scenario than Charley though.
There will be no strong trough to pull him quickly north
toward Florida.
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Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:30 am

Good, I for one hope it goes to mexico :wink:
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#6 Postby ~SirCane » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:31 am

It won't go through the FL Peninsula this time. It will threaten East LA all the way to the Fl Panhandle IMO.
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#7 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:31 am

Stormcenter wrote:
btsgmdad wrote:Every model run I see put this storm on a Charley-type track. I just pray that its not Charley-type intensity. :(


It will a totally different scenario than Charley though.
There will be no strong trough to pull him quickly north
toward Florida.


Trough is not so strong and a little ahead, yes. Weakness to the north with a ridge to the right, though. Given the GFS tendency to underestimate that ridge, though, this whole scenario is still quite possibly further west.
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#8 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:40 am

Naples, FL landfall at 156 hours:

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I sure hope this doesn't verify. :-(
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Matthew5

#9 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:42 am

Looks like Charley the second? :eek:
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#10 Postby x-y-no » Tue Sep 07, 2004 11:46 am

Matthew5 wrote:Looks like Charley the second? :eek:


Yeah ...

But as I've been saying, the GFS has a very hard time with the strength of the ridge, frequently underestimating it. If it is doing its normal thing, than we can expect the real track to be further west (sorry GOM folks).
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