What the Model Agreement Does and Does not Mean

[MWatkins]

Think I saw this somewhere else today...so please...if I repeat this phrase I am not ripping it from somebody.

Agreement does not equal accuracy.

All that we have seen today is that the the major global models (excluding the Andy Richter-like CMC) have basically converged on a similar solution (as the last few euro runs have shown BTW). The GFS is a bit slower than the other two...I think because it is too far south during the first 3 days...but by and large they agree that Ivan will not make it past 82 west. Only the GFDL and CMC continue this thing on off to the west.

This could be the start of a trend that takes this out to sea (hopefully)...or refocuses a possible threat to the eastern GOM...or the models could continue to suggest a SFL threat. It is just MUCH too early to tell.

All we have is agreement...with (interestingly) the furthest west model not becoming the furthest east. But all we really have is a trend...but this is NOT an explicit SFL threat.

MW

[Roxy]

I think this is a good thing to keep in mind, before everyone gets all panicky again!