Likely Scenario...then the But Scenario

[LowMug]

Here is what I see at this time...

1. The Bermuda High was building fast to the SE but seems to be really flattening out in the last couple of frames with the trough left behind from Frances. The last frame really shows it shooting due south towards the north-central Bahamas.

2. The stalled trough in the GOM is expanding to the north and to the west and deflecting the continental high...whether or not this is due to late day thunderstorm firing I don't know...

1st Scenario

Now...to the point both of these observations would indicate that the two highs will not bridge together and the weakness will be left for Sir Ivan to roar up the eastern GOM towards the panhandle and Big Bend portions of Florida....but

2nd Scenario

BIG BUTS AND BIG IFS...if the Bermuda High builds past the northern Bahamas and into the eastern portion of Florida and the Cont High pushes through the GOM stalled trough then the North Central GOM will be impacted...

I for one am inclined at this time to lean towards the 1st Scenario

Just my thoughts...would love to hear some feedback...here is the loop



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

[huricanwatcher]

not feeling that.

[LowMug]

not feeling that.

Can we be a little bit more insightful as to why...other than "not feeling that"...would very much appreciate to know why.

[TyphoonTim]

I really think the trough along the east coast will get pinched off. The last couple of frames of the WV loop indicated a "tight squeeze" occuring that I doubt that trough could ever hold off. I've been watching this WV loop since 6:30AM and I do not see the Bermuda high weakening much at all. In fact the western lobe appears strong as ever with a blob beginning to extend at the SW corner. The area of the trough in the east GOM appears like it will get cut off to the north, and leave an area for Ivan to wander into. However, once in this area, I don't see much to steer Ivan right now. Gonna have to keep an eye on the system coming down from the plains. I see a combination of both scenarios: the trough will probably get pinched by a bridging of the highs, but the trough in the eastern GOM remains, thus stalling Ivan until something else can pick it up.

[LowMug]

I really think the trough along the east coast will get pinched off. The last couple of frames of the WV loop indicated a "tight squeeze" occuring that I doubt that trough could ever hold off. I've been watching this WV loop since 6:30AM and I do not see the Bermuda high weakening much at all. In fact the western lobe appears strong as ever with a blob beginning to extend at the SW corner. The area of the trough in the east GOM appears like it will get cut off to the north, and leave an area for Ivan to wander into. However, once in this area, I don't see much to steer Ivan right now. Gonna have to keep an eye on the system coming down from the plains. I see a combination of both scenarios: the trough will probably get pinched by a bridging of the highs, but the trough in the eastern GOM remains, thus stalling Ivan until something else can pick it up.

that is truly a fantastic synopsis...much thanks to the insight

[tronbunny]

I really think the trough along the east coast will get pinched off.<snip>
In fact the western lobe appears strong as ever with a blob beginning to extend at the SW corner. The area of the trough in the east GOM appears like it will get cut off to the north, and leave an area for Ivan to wander into. However, once in this area, I don't see much to steer Ivan right now. Gonna have to keep an eye on the system coming down from the plains. I see a combination of both scenarios: the trough will probably get pinched by a bridging of the highs, but the trough in the eastern GOM remains, thus stalling Ivan until something else can pick it up.

Good observation, we shall see.
I wonder if that SW extension of the east-of-fl-ridge will continue to hold there. If it does, good for the Keys. That also leaves the possibility that Ivan will make it into the proverbial "Charley Box" and IF the ridge makes it down from the plains...a hard right after entering the SE GOM?