Water Vapor at this time

[dhweather]

The subtropical appears to have stopped its westward progression North of 28N78W. However, it appears to be oozing (now there's a meteorlogical term) SW around 25N78W.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I wonder if the models are assuming that Ivan will get sucked up
inbetween the subtropical ridge and the trough. If the oozing
continues SW, then that may block the turn North until Ivan gets further West.

[huricanwatcher]

just gonna suck it up and build....... cat5 at 11

[LowMug]

There is no oozing in the tropics...just playing...

The door has been shut on the Bermuda High...therefore the ridge will weaken (actually been weakening) on the western periphery and a more northern component around the edges of the ridge will occur as the NHC is forecasting...this is an extreme eastern GOM and Florida peninsula event...lets just hope she weakens

[PurdueWx80]

They almost certainly will not make it a Cat 5 tonight w/o recon. The convection is deepening, however, the outer eyewall has yet to tighten, so the inner core of the system hasn't reached it's potential. If we're going to officially have a Cat 5 tonight, it won't be until the 5 a.m. update...if at all.

[dekeoy]

Definately looks like its westward progression has slowed somewhat and appears to be "drooping" southward.

[huricanwatcher]

that droop might be showing a northward progression?

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think a new track is in the offing at 11. 5a latest You can see the eroision of the ridge pretty good here http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[LowMug]

this was posted awhile ago by me...and got smoked...was hoping for more discussion since this is the point of concern regarding ivans track...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=43387

[BensonTCwatcher]

The "lobe" is the key to this I think. If it was not there, Ivan would already be moving more N. I am not really sure a jog that way isn't happening.

[quickychick]

The subtropical appears to have stopped its westward progression North of 28N78W. [However, it appears to be oozing (now there's a meteorlogical term) SW around 25N78W.

Looks like a runny nose to me. In profile...seriously! If that stops...snotting...and starts fingering down again towards the SW, will it cradle Ivan northward? As far as altitude goes, where does that ridge lie compared with the top of the hurricane?

[WeatherEmperor]

The subtropical appears to have stopped its westward progression North of 28N78W. [However, it appears to be oozing (now there's a meteorlogical term) SW around 25N78W.

Looks like a runny nose to me. In profile...seriously! If that stops...snotting...and starts fingering down again towards the SW, will it cradle Ivan northward? As far as altitude goes, where does that ridge lie compared with the top of the hurricane?

lol

<RICKY>

[quickychick]

I know, it's bizarre the things I see, perhaps I should put the bong down and go for a walk.

[Guest]

I know, it's bizarre the things I see, perhaps I should put the bong down and go for a walk.

LMAO quicky! I wish I were there with you right now!!!

[southerngale]

Maybe I'm not looking at this correctly but it doesn't look like the ridge is weakening to me. It seems to be extending to the west and southwest. Maybe someone could explain it a little better...I'm still learning this stuff.

[Guest]

Maybe I'm not looking at this correctly but it doesn't look like the ridge is weakening to me. It seems to be extending to the west and southwest. Maybe someone could explain it a little better...I'm still learning this stuff.

Southern,

I'm learning like you! But, you know much more than most!!!

If it's NOT weakening...what are the implications of a stronger "ridge" for it's path???

Thank you!!!

[Dmetal81]

Im no meteorologist (not yet anyways!), but it appears that although the ridge has continued in the very southwest part of to it extend south and a tad bit west, over all the ridge has stopped expanding and is now being squeezed. Although there is no more energy coming out from the west to push the ridge back, I would think it is safe to say it is parked now.

[southerngale]

Thanks CLTRDU but I'm certain I don't know more than most. This is a great place to learn though and I'm always learning something new.
I would think a stronger ridge that is still extending west would delay the northern turn. When the ridge begins to weaken, Ivan should start to turn to the north.