New Jamaica radar loop

#1 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:47 pm

http://www.datasync.com/~magee/weather/ivanc.gif

#2 Postby **Canelaw99** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:49 pm

OK...is it me or does it look like it's going to hit Jamaica more on the SE side?? The NHC official forecast looks to have it hitting Jamaica on the western side. So....what does that do to the track?????

spaceisland · #3 Postby **spaceisland** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:54 pm

Agreed... the motion seems more clearly northwest, impacting the island on the SE, closer to Kingston.

jpigott · #4 Postby **jpigott** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:55 pm

the loop moves fast but is sure does look like it will strike the SE coast and not the western coast of Jamiaca, only time will tell

#5 Postby **Canelaw99** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:56 pm

Here's a link to the NHC forecast for quick viewing - I'm just curious what this might or might not do to the track.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2038W5.gif

NorthGaWeather · #6 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:57 pm

Looks like the NHC track is dead on.

#7 Postby **Canelaw99** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:58 pm

But to me, it looks like the H on Jamaica is on the western side, not the SE side.....I confused!

calidoug · #8 Postby **calidoug** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 3:58 pm

The NHC track looks a little too far S and W w.r.t. Jamaica. The storm has been moving more NW for the past few hours.

#9 Postby **vortex100** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:01 pm

Again, you have to watch out for the infamous hurricane "wobble" which will sometimes make it look like the storm is changing direction when it really isn't. However, the "wobble" in Charley turned out to be a real change in the direction, so we can't discount that Kingston may suffer a direct hit with the eye of Ivan.

#10 Postby **Canelaw99** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:02 pm

But we can keep an eye on it with the radar link above

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:03 pm

We'll have a better idea if its a wobble or not in 30 minutes or so.

Kingston's radar doesn't update with great frequency. But GOES does every 30 minutes.

spaceisland · #12 Postby **spaceisland** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:04 pm

Which side of Jamaica, east or west, is more mountainous... and would cause more disruption to the center of circulation?

cloud_galaxy · #13 Postby **cloud_galaxy** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:11 pm

spaceisland wrote:Which side of Jamaica, east or west, is more mountainous... and would cause more disruption to the center of circulation?

On the east side, mountains are higher. West side is also mountainous, but not as high.

See http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/jamaica_rel_2002.jpg

#14 Postby **vortex100** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:15 pm

The highest terrain in Jamaica is from the central portion of the island into the southeastern corner. Blue Mountain peak (2256 meters) is about 20 miles northeast of Kingston. The high terrain to the northeast of Kingston is currently shielding the city from the high winds, which is why the winds are so light at the airport at this time. This will change dramatically as the eye gets closer this evening into tonight. The terrain will not be able to protect them indefinitely.

#15 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:18 pm

dhweather wrote:We'll have a better idea if its a wobble or not in 30 minutes or so.

Kingston's radar doesn't update with great frequency. But GOES does every 30 minutes.

Actually...the GOES on the GHCC site updates every 15 minutes. Sometimes every 5 minutes...depending on the mode they have it on.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

RAMSDIS is even faster than that...the vis floater. Not sure if they have an IR rapid scan that is zoomed on the storm.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML

ColdFront77 · #16 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:19 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:OK...is it me or does it look like it's going to hit Jamaica more on the SE side?? The NHC official forecast looks to have it hitting Jamaica on the western side. So....what does that do to the track?????

The distance between a landfall across southeastern/eastern Jamaica and one on the western side of the island, so I wouldn't expect a dramatic difference in the beginning of the latest official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center.

Stormsfury · #17 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:20 pm

vortex100 wrote:The highest terrain in Jamaica is from the central portion of the island into the southeastern corner. Blue Mountain peak (2256 meters) is about 20 miles northeast of Kingston. The high terrain to the northeast of Kingston is currently shielding the city from the high winds, which is why the winds are so light at the airport at this time. This will change dramatically as the eye gets closer this evening into tonight. The terrain will not be able to protect them indefinitely.

Especially when the winds swing around with a southerly component ... even worse, the upslope component will enhance orographic lift, and winds will gust much higher in the higher elevations ...

SF

PTrackerLA · #18 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:23 pm

Be on the lookout for another westward wobble, which would take Ivan right through the middle of Jamaica. If it doesn't wobble back to the west it looks like it will pass just to the east of Kingston on the SE side of the island.

New Jamaica radar loop

New Jamaica radar loop

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