Models are wacky!

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charleston_hugo_veteran
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Models are wacky!

#1 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:56 pm

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
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Cape Verde
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#2 Postby Cape Verde » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:59 pm

The A98E has been smoking crack or meth for quite some time. It's kinda sad... :(
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#3 Postby Guest » Fri Sep 10, 2004 4:59 pm

a lot are pointing toward us chv
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#4 Postby Mello1 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:00 pm

Dang! What the heck happened here??? They were all in general agreement earlier and now this??? Sumthin's up.
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#5 Postby Guest » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:00 pm

btw we had a tornado here today...here is wilmington (boiling springs)
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#6 Postby SootyTern » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:02 pm

If these are the most recent runs, then isn't the NHC 5PM track more to the LEFT of most of the guidance? I'm confused now.
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#7 Postby Mello1 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:02 pm

Cape Verde wrote:The A98E has been smoking crack or meth for quite some time. It's kinda sad... :(


BWAHHHHHHHHHH! :lol:
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#8 Postby greeng13 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:04 pm

NCstateWOLF wrote:a lot are pointing toward us chv


i noticed that as well

also many of them have ivan making landfall right where charley did? do the models get recent storms "stuck" in their memory (like breaking up with their lover and taking up a crack addiction?)
Last edited by greeng13 on Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby huricanwatcher » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:05 pm

im sorry, maybe i got my contacts in backwards or something, but on tv and all the satelite views look to me to be tracking on the eastern side of jamaica..... why do the models have it on the western side?........
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#10 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:06 pm

Yeah the A98E has a "resolution problem. BUT if you consider the synoptic pattern along with the models, it is not so wacky. The right turn is coming, the models just can't say when because of the forward speed and timing of the ridge movement/height. This is bad news for many track-wise but it may actually result in weakening over the higher terrain of Eastern Cuba. Tough call on that part. The overall trend seems to be holding either way.

I just heard Max Mayfield say the Miami area is not out of the woods by any means. He even said "I don't like it either" He sounded irritated for some reason...
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#11 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:08 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Yeah the A98E has a "resolution problem. BUT if you consider the synoptic pattern along with the models, it is not so wacky. The right turn is coming, the models just can't say when because of the forward speed and timing of the ridge movement/height. This is bad news for many track-wise but it may actually result in weakening over the higher terrain of Eastern Cuba. Tough call on that part. The overall trend seems to be holding either way.

I just heard Max Mayfield say the Miami area is not out of the woods by any means. He even said "I don't like it either" He sounded irritated for some reason...


May Mayfield is probably irritated because this is the third hurricane to hit (possibly) in a month or so.. and there is a lot of unknown's as to where IVAN is going...
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#12 Postby MomH » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:09 pm

I noticed it also and I am a real newbie to all this. There are only 2 models to the left of the forecast track and 7 or so to the East.

Can someone explain to me?
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#13 Postby huricanwatcher » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:09 pm

thanks MOM H... seems every thread i ask this on, I am getting ignored
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#14 Postby MomH » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:09 pm

I noticed it also and I am a real newbie to all this. There are only 2 models to the left of the forecast track and 7 or so to the East.

Can someone explain to me?
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#15 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:10 pm

MomH wrote:I noticed it also and I am a real newbie to all this. There are only 2 models to the left of the forecast track and 7 or so to the East.

Can someone explain to me?


this is why i said WACKY....LOL..

Most all of them are doing the opposite of the "official" track!
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#16 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:12 pm

[quote="yoda
May Mayfield is probably irritated because this is the third hurricane to hit (possibly) in a month or so.. and there is a lot of unknown's as to where IVAN is going...[/quote]

Maybe...but when I heard it it sounded like it was in response to all the hype on the "line" vs. the cone...for the third time
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#17 Postby huricanwatcher » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:12 pm

are the models trying to wish this one away.......

NOT GONNA WORK...... ( keeping fingers and toes crossed for the poor souls on that tiny island )
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#18 Postby greeng13 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:28 pm

seriously,

since these models are computer programs and therefore i would assume that the paths of recent storms might be stored in their programming/database somewhere...do they actually become more prone to put a hurricane near a spot where one has previously made landfall...hence my comment earlier that they get those recent storms (with similar track history as of recent) "stuck" in their memory?
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#19 Postby FritzPaul » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm

MomH wrote:I noticed it also and I am a real newbie to all this. There are only 2 models to the left of the forecast track and 7 or so to the East.

Can someone explain to me?



IMHO: It's that top-secret FSU-SE, and if what I have learned here is correct, several of the models are based on the GFS.
Last edited by FritzPaul on Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#20 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:52 pm

You have to understand how each model works. The A98E is merely a "climo" model. No dynamics at all. So discard it. The BAMM/BAMD are also not dynamical, in that they do not forecast atmospheric steering pattern changes. They just take a snapshot of the current flow and assume it won't change for 5 days and that Ivan will just be carried along in today's flow. They should be used with extreme caution north of 20 degrees, generally.

Here's a good page explaining some of the models:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml
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