West Coast FL looking better, but keep up guard!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I like to see the models shifting west, but I don't yet trust them. Especially after what Charley did, staying in the cone, but made a pretty abrupt turn inland earlier than many thought. We assume the center of the cone is the most likely path, so we run with it.
My gf commented at how the VIPIR did really well with Charley and Frances a few days out, and even though the models pagged a landfall and then shifted north, then shifted all south, and back and forth for days before landfall like they always do... ultimately what the NHC first predicted and waht VIPIR predicted came to fruition. -like they were more accurate when they were 5 days out than they were in 3 or even 2...or 1!
I for one will not let my guard down. If the steering currents are not very strong, there will be a whole lot of wiggle room for Ivan. With his predicted strength, Ivan will be able to dictate his own "wobbles" anyway, especially if moving slow.

[mobilebay]

I like to see the models shifting west, but I don't yet trust them. Especially after what Charley did, staying in the cone, but made a pretty abrupt turn inland earlier than many thought. We assume the center of the cone is the most likely path, so we run with it.
My gf commented at how the VIPIR did really well with Charley and Frances a few days out, and even though the models pagged a landfall and then shifted north, then shifted all south, and back and forth for days before landfall like they always do... ultimately what the NHC first predicted and waht VIPIR predicted came to fruition. -like they were more accurate when they were 5 days out than they were in 3 or even 2...or 1!
I for one will not let my guard down. If the steering currents are not very strong, there will be a whole lot of wiggle room for Ivan. With his predicted strength, Ivan will be able to dictate his own "wobbles" anyway, especially if moving slow.

Remember the New GFS basicly rides the Coast. You (West Coast) are nowhere near out of the woods. Remember, that the NHC missed with their forecast (to for west) with Charley, and Frances(while in Gulf). Both with troughs coming down. You are nowhere near out of the woods.

[cape_escape]

I thought about the same things your GF mentioned to you! I also, right after Frances, thought about the fact that With Charley the guess for landfall was first, Ft myers, and then Tampa, and Charley came in somewhere in between the two of them. Then, with Frances, the same type of thing happend...WPB and Melborne and Frances came in between them. Well with Ivan, in the beginning I was hearing a lot about Naples, then Sarasota...So, I really hope he doesn't come in between, because I'm in Cape Coral...between them! I know Ivan can go anywhere, pretty much, and I am starting to trust the far North, Panhandle, landing. But, I'm keeeping a close eye on Ivan just the same!