FSU Superensemble says...

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N2FSU
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FSU Superensemble says...

#1 Postby N2FSU » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:48 am

I have seen the runs for the the last 48 hrs for the FSU Superensemble and even 48 hrs ago it had landfall in the Big bend around Apalachicola to St. Marks. The last run I saw was 00Z last night (8pm). All of the theories that the models are shifting left ONLY because of the west jog of Ivan near Jamaica last night don't hold up, in my opinion. The Superensemble had Ivan west of all the other models long before that west jog last night. It seems to me the others are just finally coming around to the FSU SE. Don't get me wrong, I am not -removed- this storm to me. I live in Tallahassee and was here in '85 when Kate came through. The damage from that storm was unbelievable... we are a city of thousands and thousands of trees and there were so many down from that storm that many people were without power for 2 weeks. What is REALLY scary is that the highest offical recorded sustained wind for TLH during Kate was 47 mph. I believe the highest gust was 67 mph. 100+ mph would we devastating in this area.
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#2 Postby GulfHills » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:42 am

I remember Kate too! I don't know if I could stay here if Ivan comes this way. Would they evacuate Tallahassee?
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#3 Postby ~SirCane » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:53 am

It could end up even further West as time goes by.
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donsutherland1
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Re: FSU Superensemble says...

#4 Postby donsutherland1 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 8:58 am

N2FSU,

Very good point. If one recalls, the runs were shifting left even before last night.
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#5 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:00 am

I agree that they will continue to shift west...I think when its all sais and done landfall could easily be pensacola...maybe even Baldwin county or mobile bay
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#6 Postby stormchaser » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:42 am

Where can we access FSU SE site?
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#7 Postby N2FSU » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:48 am

There is no public access to the SE, as it is a publicly funded project.
I have a friend who is a prof. met who is supplying me with the runs.
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#8 Postby N2FSU » Sat Sep 11, 2004 9:49 am

There is no public access to the SE, as it is a publicly funded project.
I have a friend who is a prof. met who is supplying me with the runs.
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