Please don't laugh at this opinion...

[Windfall]

Let me get this straight...I do not agree with the NHC forecast for several reasons. Here they are...

1. It's going to be just a matter of time until the ULL out in the Atlantic significantly weakens a rather strong high pressure ridge, which at one time extended over eastern Florida.

2. The high pressure ridge near Texas is starting to block the areas from the western panhandle of Florida to points westwards from any chance of Ivan making landfall.

3. A trough is expected to dip down and pull Ivan north and maybe Northeast. This can be proven by the latest NHC forecast track; although its a bit farther west, it eventually shows a turn towards the Northeast before making landfall.

4. Ivan is moving slower than anticipated. Mr. Derek Ortt said that slower movement could mean an adjustment of the track rightwards.

5. Many of the computer models are downplaying if not completely ignoring the interaction of the ULL.

Lastly, many of you may ask, "But Ivan moved well south of Jamaica, so shouldn't a westerly trend continue"?

My response is simply that as the ULL moved west, part of the ridge was forced to wrap around it and move farther south and west, causing ivan to take a due west if not wsw track temporarily. As the ULL moves even closer to Florida, expect the western end of the high pressure ridge to significantly weaken.

Before major hurricanes make a change in their direction, they usually slow down. Ivan has been slowing down more and more. From the latest satellite loops, it may even be nearly stationary.

One very last thing, yesterday night i saw an interesting discussion...
http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurrica ... m#ANALYSIS: 


here is the latest WV loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

My landfall projection is from New Port Richey somewhere south to Key West. Basically, I think Ivan will affect the peninsula instead of the panhandle. The west coast should stay informed.

[das8929]

I totally agree with you.

[lilbump3000]

Maybe ivan slowing down because he has had a long ride across the atlantic and seems to want to take a break. You can't blame him for wanting to take a break . LOL anyway he might be going to start a NW motion. We all just have to wait and see what happens.

[dennis1x1]

all that and no landfall prediction...if you disagree where do you say its going?

let me guess....miami as a cat 5?

[NateFLA]

all that and no landfall prediction...if you disagree where do you say its going?

let me guess....miami as a cat 5?

Why was that necessary at all?
He is allowed to assert his opinion in an intelligent manner, which he backed up with supporting ideas.

What are you doing?

[CaluWxBill]

all that and no landfall prediction...if you disagree where do you say its going?

let me guess....miami as a cat 5?

Why was that necessary at all?
He is allowed to assert his opinion in an intelligent manner, which he backed up with supporting ideas.

What are you doing?

How much for Philly?

[air360]

dennis he was just giving his opinion...your right he didnt make a landfall position...mostly becuase he wasnt trying to make one...all he was saying was through his eyes he sees some flaws in the current forecast...how these things would affect the eventual path of ivan was not his point...his point was through his eyes there seems to be some flaws in the forecas...so be nice please....(referring to "let me guess....miami as a cat 5?" comment)

[caneman]

all that and no landfall prediction...if you disagree where do you say its going?

let me guess....miami as a cat 5?

Ummmm, lets see he had reasoning. No need to flame. Curious - what is your prediction and reasoning?

[chris_fit]

I agree as well.

you can view my analysis at my site, check it out in the signature.

[Brent]

I agree as well.

you can view my analysis at my site, check it out in the signature.

Signatures are disabled.

[TheWriteIdea]

Chris...

New forecast coming soon?

Renae

[Pebbles]

I thought it was very well thought out and nicely posted! I would never laugh at something that obviously took allot of work and thought. Nice Job! Waiting to see how your observations pan out *huggers*

[Stormcenter]

all that and no landfall prediction...if you disagree where do you say its going?

let me guess....miami as a cat 5?

LMAOF!!!!!!!!

[chris_fit]

Chris...

New forecast coming soon?

Renae

Yea a little later today.

[air360]

funny how dennis1x1 is not repsonding in this thread anymore:D

[crbarrels]

dennis1x1 does not contribute in any way, watching his posts, he disagrees with everyone and anyone, but has no evidence to support. Makes fun of mets, who are obviously doing MUCH better job than him. WHO MAKES FUN OF METS?!

This is very reasonable forecast, given the slowing down of the cane.

[Anonymous]

Hey, Have you seen DT's/wxrisk's noon update?

He now says it may take longer to turn north but there has been a change and instead of moving due north for so long, it will turn NE sooner due to a change in the ridge... I still think the slowing down is also making panhandle less likely... If it stays stronger than predicted, Upper level winds will turn it quicker as well as steering is different the stronger the storm is... West Coast definitely not outta the woods yet IMHO...

http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurrica ... m#ANALYSIS: 

[alicia-w]

No landfall prediction? Sorry, but I read where he said anywhere from New Port Richey to Key West.

[Cookiely]

He did give a landfall. Some people just don't take the time to read before they decide to give their opinion.

[vbhoutex]

He did give a landfall prediction and reasoning for his thoughts. Lets leave the comments on others comments off and let the mods deal with it please. Otherwise we will be forced to lock the thread and or move it.