Look at the current front position... the way it is draped across the panhandle are now makes it look near impossible for a storm the size of Ivan to squeeze into the western side of the "cone". I highly doubt that this storm can literally bump right up against the front. If the left side of the storm is "touching" the front, it would be in the big bend area anyway. Now, that assumes that this front doesn't budge in position for the next few days. It will have to move somewhat to the east. The ridge will also be weakening to Ivan's east. Usually storms are pulled up in advance of the fronts, quite a bit in advance, not right bumped up against them either. As I posted the other day, I think the earlier track reasonings are going to prve more accurate. The slow down of Ivan makes this an even more likely scenario for a west coast hit. The slower it goes in the next 2 days, the further that front will be able to advance, even if it is painfully slow to make any longitude east.
This isn't a wishcast, I don't want to deal with the aftermath, but it is the pattern setup my somewhat novice eyes are seeing unfold.
Mike's recent post just added a bit of credence to what I am seeing.
Plus, look where they put Jim Cantore...Punta Gorda for a story...someplace that is really easy to drive north from but probably on the southern side of where TWC really thinks this thing may go.
My gut feeling is looking more like Cedar Key, FL. I said this a few days ago and it is looking more likely with each advisory. I think that the NHC thinking would have panned out if Ivan was going much faster over the last 24 hours and the front hadn't made as much progress, but right now, I don't think so. It will very interesting to see how the models handle the slow in Ivan's speed and whether or not they try and project a faster motion (-and just how fast) northward over the next 2 days. Fast=panhandle/big bend, slower=west coast or sw coast.
Just MHO.
