My Fellow North Cental GOM'ERS

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LowMug

My Fellow North Cental GOM'ERS

#1 Postby LowMug » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:48 pm

Those of us from LA, MS, AL, and extreme west Panhandle...Are any of you beginning to worry...worry even more that is...

I was expecting a larger shift to the west with the latest advisory but this is good news but as others have posted on other threads I fear the NHC does not want the west coast of FL to feel at ease...
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#2 Postby crazycajuncane » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:51 pm

All I can say is who knows??

It all started for me last night when I saw Ivan doing the WSW wobble.

I started to wonder if there was any chance for it to climb back northward and hit Southern Flordia.

I think this many be a worry for us all on the Gulf Coast.
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#3 Postby ursa minor » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:52 pm

I am getting edgy....I see a pattern and I dont like it. I am starting to make a few preps now but I am in the wait and see mode a bump here or there could make a big difference.
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#4 Postby CFL » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:53 pm

I can understand their caution, especially with what those people have been through down there. Yesterday I wasn't worried at all. What a difference a day makes. I'm now thinking through potential disaster plans. I think people in our area as well as South Florida are waiting for some consistency. I know I'm firing up the coffee pot tonight, waiting for the 11pm advisory. If the NHC shifts west again then I'll know it's for real.
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#5 Postby Agua » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:54 pm

Not yet. Everyone seems convinced it's headed to the Panhandle.
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#6 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:56 pm

I'm not....not yet. We're still on the good side, and I think it's still a FL event. If it makes it to the west tip of Cuba, then maybe I'll sweat a little.
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#7 Postby LowMug » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:56 pm

Agua wrote:Not yet. Everyone seems convinced it's headed to the Panhandle.


Yea...just like everyone was convinced it would hit Haiti...and then eastern Cuba...and then Miami...and then Punta Gorda...

I feel like Georges (but worse) is happening all over again...my flood insurance does not kick in until Tuesday midnight...
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#8 Postby zoeyann » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:56 pm

Not worried, but vigilent. I do not believe it will make it this far west. To me it still looks like a panhandle event, but that is an amature opinion. Having said that that, I trust the pros, the NOAA forecaster and the mets are saying to keep watching and I will act accordingly.
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#9 Postby BigO » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:57 pm

I'm keeping an eye on it, but it isn't disturbing my life motion yet. I can't evac before tomorrow night anyway with my wife's work schedule. My decision will be based on what happens overnight.
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#10 Postby bfez1 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 3:59 pm

Keeping a very close eye on the track. Will know for a sure in a few more days but I will def. be ready to take action if needed.
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#11 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:00 pm

Not too concerned - I'm too far west.
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#12 Postby tdess02 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:02 pm

Ivan and the steering currents have already done some unexpected things. If this trend continues we all on the Gulf cosat need to pay more attention. Keep in mind, if Ivan starts moving more northerly, then the worries again shift east. I think the NHC is staying with the Florida panhandle until more model runs come in. If I were in MS. and Alabama, I would getting very concerned.
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#13 Postby artinla » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:03 pm

The Water Vapor Loops show the storm moving toward an apparent weakness in the front that is ahead of it. Also, there is a Low in the atlantic that seems to be developing.. The Atlantic storm is also moving WNW, so what effect might this have on Ivan's potential turn to the N and NE?
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#14 Postby crazycajuncane » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:04 pm

I don't feel it will come pass 88 West at this point, because it's got a northernly jog.

It's hard to tell until we actually see a full blown north turn.

I'm watching like others, but life is going on as normal.
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#15 Postby Janie34 » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:05 pm

Not worried or panicky here, but still watching Ivan like the proverbial hawk. I'm standing by my original statement: landfall between the MS/AL border and Appalachicola. I'm still a met student and I'm sure I'm missing a few things, but thats my best estimate right now.

I'm going to watch a few more model runs and see what NHC has to say before taking further action. If it turns out that Ivan is heading for Mobile/Pensacola, I'll secure everything and leave for safer locations. No way am I riding out a monster like Ivan. Forget it.
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#16 Postby LAwxrgal » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:06 pm

I feel safe here but I'm still keeping an eye out. These things have ways of doing the unexpected.
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#17 Postby HollynLA » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:07 pm

Definitely watching it here. I'm hoping the NHC forecasts is correct which isn't good for Pensacole. I could also understand why NHC is hesitant to move it over more west but they should maybe widen the cone to include more westward locations as well? Uhhhhhhhh, I just don't know anymore....... :yesno:
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#18 Postby alicia-w » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:13 pm

I always wanted to see Nashville again. Looks like we may get to do just that this week.
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#19 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:20 pm

Pensacola here...made reservations today in Slidell LA, for Tuesday and Wednesday nights. I figure if the track brings it here...Slidell should be ok...and if the track brings it farther west towards that area...(we can cancel up until monday at noon) we'll stay put. I got the feeling when talking to the Holiday inn folks, reservations are being made fairly fast at this point. To anyone that plans on leaving...don't wait long to make those reservations..If it happens you don't actually need those reservations...most places will allow you to cancel the day before.
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#20 Postby WeatherNLU » Sat Sep 11, 2004 4:24 pm

I am watching with a cautious eye. I think we surely have to be more worried than we were at this time yesterday.
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