11am track

[Brent]

INITIAL-20.6 N 84.4 W 140 KT
12 HR-21.5 N 85.3 W 140 KT
24 HR-23.2 N 86.5 W 135 KT
36 HR-25.2 N 87.4 W 130 KT
48 HR-27.2 N 87.7 W 120 KT
72 HR-31.0 N 86.5 W 100 KT-INLAND ON THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
96 HR-34.0 N 84.5 W 45 KT-INLAND NEAR ATLANTA, GEORGIA
120 HR-36.5 N 81.5 W 25 KT-INLAND

Landfall between Pensacola and Fort Walton Very Early Thursday.

[yoda]

Yep, but if you read the PA closely..

Hurricane watches may be required for portions of the north central
and northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast later today or tonight.

Hmmmm....

[caneman]

INITIAL-20.6 N 84.4 W 140 KT
12 HR-21.5 N 85.3 W 140 KT
24 HR-23.2 N 86.5 W 135 KT
36 HR-25.2 N 87.4 W 130 KT
48 HR-27.2 N 87.7 W 120 KT
72 HR-31.0 N 86.5 W 100 KT-INLAND ON THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
96 HR-34.0 N 84.5 W 45 KT-INLAND NEAR ATLANTA, GEORGIA
120 HR-36.5 N 81.5 W 25 KT-INLAND

Landfall between Pensacola and Fort Walton Very Early Thursday.

Don't be surprised if it shifts East of Apalachicola

[cycloneye]

And it may make landfall as a cat 4.

[rainydaze]

moving NW now....

[Brent]

INITIAL-20.6 N 84.4 W 140 KT
12 HR-21.5 N 85.3 W 140 KT
24 HR-23.2 N 86.5 W 135 KT
36 HR-25.2 N 87.4 W 130 KT
48 HR-27.2 N 87.7 W 120 KT
72 HR-31.0 N 86.5 W 100 KT-INLAND ON THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
96 HR-34.0 N 84.5 W 45 KT-INLAND NEAR ATLANTA, GEORGIA
120 HR-36.5 N 81.5 W 25 KT-INLAND

Landfall between Pensacola and Fort Walton Very Early Thursday.

Don't be surprised if it shifts East of Apalachicola

Wouldn't bother me. I don't want to be on the east side of this sucker(or in the center like the NHC has it now)

[Guest]

Whether he hits FL, AL, MS, or LA, I think all of these states will feel some effects. Like everyone keeps saying, we just need to wait and see. Easier said than done.
...Jennifer...

[LilNoles2004]

caneman, everything I see keeps telling me that, if another shift is going to happen, it'll be west and not east. Why do you feel the way you do? That's a pretty dramatic shift that you're talking about!

[snowflake]

moving NW now....

I thought that it was moving more to the north. Do you think that Ivan is ready to make his move?

[Stormcenter]

INITIAL-20.6 N 84.4 W 140 KT
12 HR-21.5 N 85.3 W 140 KT
24 HR-23.2 N 86.5 W 135 KT
36 HR-25.2 N 87.4 W 130 KT
48 HR-27.2 N 87.7 W 120 KT
72 HR-31.0 N 86.5 W 100 KT-INLAND ON THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
96 HR-34.0 N 84.5 W 45 KT-INLAND NEAR ATLANTA, GEORGIA
120 HR-36.5 N 81.5 W 25 KT-INLAND

Landfall between Pensacola and Fort Walton Very Early Thursday.

Don't be surprised if it shifts East of Apalachicola

Why is that caneman? Please don't tell you are still holding out for a landfall in your area? Haven't seen enough destruction on TV to realize what this monster can do?

[storm4u]

Its def about time this thing started to move NW!

[vbhoutex]

There is a second trough coming in behind the current one everyone is talking about. It may be stronger and if Ivan continues his slow speeds, it might be this one that would pick him up before landfall, and possibly take him on a more NNE course prior to landfall, but not a lot before landfall. I don't see a possible large shift east, but I do see a possible shift a little East as we progress furhter into this event.

[rainydaze]

The NW movement was according to the 11:00 AM advisory. We'll have to see if this is the beginning of his move north.

[caneman]

INITIAL-20.6 N 84.4 W 140 KT
12 HR-21.5 N 85.3 W 140 KT
24 HR-23.2 N 86.5 W 135 KT
36 HR-25.2 N 87.4 W 130 KT
48 HR-27.2 N 87.7 W 120 KT
72 HR-31.0 N 86.5 W 100 KT-INLAND ON THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
96 HR-34.0 N 84.5 W 45 KT-INLAND NEAR ATLANTA, GEORGIA
120 HR-36.5 N 81.5 W 25 KT-INLAND

Landfall between Pensacola and Fort Walton Very Early Thursday.

Don't be surprised if it shifts East of Apalachicola

Why is that caneman? Please don't tell you are still holding out for a landfall in your area? Haven't seen enough destruction on TV to realize what this monster can do?

Excuse me. I want no part of it. In fact, I still have my reservations in Kissimmee. The reason I'm still following it is the my local weatherman cautioned a slow down and the second front coming down as an outside potential to still affect us. I don't think it will come down this far South to Tampa, however, that is still a possibility but I do think it could still get buried in the big bend which is far to close for my comfort.. I've been thru two already and don't want to go thru another. .Three systmes have now headed NE in the Gulf - Bonnie, Carley and after traversing West thru Florida Frances ejected out North and East. IT IS THE PATTERN THIS YEAR MY FRIEND.

[Windtalker]

There is a second trough coming in behind the current one everyone is talking about. It may be stronger and if Ivan continues his slow speeds, it might be this one that would pick him up before landfall, and possibly take him on a more NNE course prior to landfall, but not a lot before landfall. I don't see a possible large shift east, but I do see a possible shift a little East as we progress furhter into this event.

I feel that if Ivan slows any more, that trough will be deep into the gulf by Wednesday shifting everything well East again....So far Ivan has not done what the Hurricane models predicted...he will surprise us again & again & again....

[ixl]

It seems odd to me that with all the models shifting left, and with the NHC missing too far right on about 10 consecutive tracks, they just keep adjusting the track to recurve more and maintain the same landfall position, rather than shifting the landfall position.

[rbaker]

windtalker may be on to something. When ivan slows as its doing now and with the high pressure eroding in the central and east gom, there is your weakness in between the two highs. If the tx one get stronger it will adjust the track east again somewhat. since Ivan is aprroaching 85 long that may be the parallel to focus on

[caneman]

windtalker may be on to something. When ivan slows as its doing now and with the high pressure eroding in the central and east gom, there is your weakness in between the two highs. If the tx one get stronger it will adjust the track east again somewhat. since Ivan is aprroaching 85 long that may be the parallel to focus on

I agree. Tampa and points North are still unfortunately in play.

[goodlife]

I don't see a true NW movement...I see a wobble..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[melhow]

This is all along the lines of what local mets were playing out as a *possible, but not likely* scenerio a few days ago. Are we getting into the *possible, and somewhat likely* range here? See post from Sat. below...

"ok...this is how one of our local mets explained it on air.....

Right now, there are TWO scenerios for IVAN:

1) The High pressure system to the east of Ivan keeps up and allows for a little most west movement of the storm. The trough that is moving south and east over the top of Ivan picks up the storm as it passes over the western tip of CUba and takes it North and a little east up to the middle of the panhandle.

2) Ivan hangs out around CUBA for a few days. The high pressure system to the east of the storm gradually weakens. Ivan continues WEST and a little north in the meantime towards the Yucatan. The trough that is moving south and east then picks up IVAN and swings him in a wide U back towards the East towards Florida. Ivan hits up near the big bend or south depending on the speed of the storm and the direction on the trough. This *still* keeps Tampa and areas north in the picture, though it is likly if this scenerio plays out, the landfall would be 60-100 miles noth of Tampa.

This is how I understood the scenerios.

Anyone else?"