thought on the "north" movement

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:55 pm

1. There is none. I just ran a 4 hour loop, we're still at about 310, maybe 320. This isnt moving north yet.

2. The trough is lifting out. Those wanting another cane on the Peninsula need to keep waiting for one, you may get one with 11, but thats TBD (forecast will be out near 5)

3. A ridge is behind the trough, I do not see a landfall east of Pensacola, though west of Morgan City is also unlikely. Somewhere within that region is where we should see the landfall

LowMug · #2 Postby **LowMug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 2:58 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:1. There is none. I just ran a 4 hour loop, we're still at about 310, maybe 320. This isnt moving north yet.

2. The trough is lifting out. Those wanting another cane on the Peninsula need to keep waiting for one, you may get one with 11, but thats TBD (forecast will be out near 5)

3. A ridge is behind the trough, I do not see a landfall east of Pensacola, though west of Morgan City is also unlikely. Somewhere within that region is where we should see the landfall

I guess that about puts a cork in 12 of the threads currently on this board...

#3 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:06 pm

Agreed DO...there is a ridge replacing the trough. The north jog will stop when the shortwave moves out tonight.

calidoug · #4 Postby **calidoug** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:07 pm

Sigh. A strawman argument.

I said due N *for a couple frames*.

As for the trough lifting out... it's already done the damage. The ridge behind it won't help... you'd need a ridge building back in from the E at this point.

I predict your forecast will be updated to the E by tomorrow morning.

Agua · #5 Postby **Agua** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:07 pm

Thanks Derek. We've got everything in place and in motion for protection of our home and, ultimately, evacuation Tuesday night if something doesn't change.

Thanks for all your work.

#6 Postby **ALhurricane** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:14 pm

calidoug,

a general course in synoptic meteorology clearly backs up the statements from Ortt and AFM.

no NE movement... NW movement will continue

Matthew5 · #7 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:22 pm

Hey Derek how do you think the western Tip of Cuba is doing? :eek:

Lockhart · #8 Postby **Lockhart** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:24 pm

It sure is nice to have so many professionals here, offering their advice for free to concerned people. Thanks, Derek and AL. :-)

#9 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:10 pm

One minor note...the TPC gave the initial motion direction as 330 in the most recent advisory. It probably wont last...but the last several hours worth of motion HAS been 330...or NNW.

MW

#10 Postby **TSmith274** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:15 pm

Just heard an interesting update on WWL 870AM here in N.O. A local meterologist, Carl Arredondo, said that this jog NNW could be temporary. He said that the movement is in response to this much-talked-about trough over the gulf states. He said that this trough is in fact pulling at Ivan. However, he said that the trough is lifting out faster than he would like. Do any of you see the same thing?

#11 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:20 pm

TSmith - Yes, the upper low is absolutely pulling out rather rapidly now. It stalled for a bit as it closed off from the main flow, but it is now opening up and moving to the northeast. I expect this NNW motion to continue for another 6 hours at most, and then a general NW track should ensue (w/ some more WNW wobbles given the building ridge to the north and NW of Ivan). Ivan may also slow down a bit in about 24 hours w/ the building ridge. I fully believe Ivan will enter the Gulf Coast states from the SSE and not make as sharp (nor as fast) a turn as some models are showing.

P.S. Check out the "new radar product" thread for a model that has nailed the track and current motion.

#12 Postby **Canebo** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:33 pm

Lockhart wrote:It sure is nice to have so many professionals here, offering their advice for free to concerned people. Thanks, Derek and AL.

This goes double for me. The voices of the professionals now are more important than ever. Thanks to all of you.
I haven't posted anything lately since the server has been overloaded at the mod's request, so I thought I would squeeze this one in for now. Keep up the good work and keep the info flowing.

otowntiger · #13 Postby **otowntiger** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:36 pm

LowMug wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:1. There is none. I just ran a 4 hour loop, we're still at about 310, maybe 320. This isnt moving north yet.

2. The trough is lifting out. Those wanting another cane on the Peninsula need to keep waiting for one, you may get one with 11, but thats TBD (forecast will be out near 5)

3. A ridge is behind the trough, I do not see a landfall east of Pensacola, though west of Morgan City is also unlikely. Somewhere within that region is where we should see the landfall

I guess that about puts a cork in 12 of the threads currently on this board...

much to your delight. LOL!

#14 Postby **MSRobi911** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:41 pm

Cudos guys, you all have done a great job in keeping us informed. We can't rely on TWC as they are still showing Pensicola Destin landfall and hardly mentioning the area east of that...where the models are. I know you can't follow the models, have learned that here and can't do the pin point on the map thing either, but ya'll have helped tremendously in understanding what is going on and what the future might hold. With my past experiences with storms we know that they can move east or west of the track very easily and at the last minute.

Thanks again for all you have done and will do in the future!!

Mary

Sanibel · #15 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:56 pm

I've been fixing a broken shutter on the deck since the northerly wobble. It has obviously wobbled back into the NHC track since and averaged on their track - maybe a hair east.

Should just clip the edge of Cuba and enter the Gulf while matching its lowest pressure again at 910...

We haven't seen anything like this in a long time. I'd watch for mild trough venting on the NE side over the Gulf Stream. 910!

#16 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:04 pm

Sanibel wrote:I've been fixing a broken shutter on the deck since the northerly wobble. It has obviously wobbled back into the NHC track since and averaged on their track - maybe a hair east.

Should just clip the edge of Cuba and enter the Gulf while matching its lowest pressure again at 910...

We haven't seen anything like this in a long time. I'd watch for mild trough venting on the NE side over the Gulf Stream. 910!

That 910 pressure is very scary. I hope Ivans weakens as forecasted by
the NHC.

tallbunch · #17 Postby **tallbunch** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:18 pm

I respectally disagree with your forecast Derek. I maintain my panama City hit that I have predicted for over a week.

#18 Postby **Jevo** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:29 pm

Derek Ortt wrote: Those wanting another cane on the Peninsula need to keep waiting for one,

I agree with everything but this... I think if there is anyone on the penninsula wishcating this storm they need to be beaten with a big fat Salmon in the head

#19 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:31 pm

Local Met just said he has notcied a west jog the last few frames.

I believe he said, "west jog".

#20 Postby **Jevo** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:33 pm

crazycajuncane wrote:Local Met just said he has notcied a west jog the last few frames.

I believe he said, "west jog".

not a West jog but def a NNW jog

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