Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 47a
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 14, 2004
...Core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan moving slowly away
from the western tip of Cuba...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of
Pinar del Rio...Havana...City of Havana...and the Isle of Youth.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula from Tulum to progreso.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward...including the Dry Tortugas.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast
from east of Morgan City Louisiana eastward to St. Marks Florida
...Including greater New Orleans Louisiana.
At 2 am EDT...0600z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 22.4 north...longitude 85.6 west or about 55 miles...90
km...northwest of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. No significant change in strength
is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 100 miles...160 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb...27.23 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely occurring over portions of the South Coast of
extreme western Cuba. The storm surge and waves should begin to
slowly diminish within the next few hours.
Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected in
association with Ivan.
Repeating the 2 am EDT position...22.4 N... 85.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 922 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
2 AM IVAN, 160 MPH, 922 MB, NW 9 MPH: 22.4 N, 85.6 W
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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southerngale
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arcticfire
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southerngale
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dennis1x1
windspeed hasnt supported cat 5 for a while now......
theyll do it at 5am i assume..
other thing is i think the 922 is just estimated.....raised based on sat and radar....which has not been impressive the last 6 hours
theyll do it at 5am i assume..
other thing is i think the 922 is just estimated.....raised based on sat and radar....which has not been impressive the last 6 hours
Last edited by dennis1x1 on Tue Sep 14, 2004 1:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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LSUChamps0002
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PTrackerLA
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LOL it certainly isn't dying, but I do think it will be a cat. 4 or less by the time it makes landfall. Cat 5 is highly unlikely. It's weird, at 5pm local weatherman said it's going to florida shouldn't affect us but tonight they had changed their tone completely and one had become noticeably concerned about Ivan hitting Louisiana. New Orleans is taking it very seriously as well...from what I've gathered the city is basically shutting down tomorrow.
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panamacity_wxman
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More North?
Looks like Ivan may be moving more northward than westward. From the previous advisory, he went .4 degrees N and only .2 degrees west. If this trend continues, then the models at 6z will be interesting.
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NorthGaWeather
dennis1x1 wrote:windspeed hasnt supported cat 5 for a while now......
theyll do it at 5am i assume..
other thing is i think the 922 is just estimated.....raised based on sat and radar....which has not been impressive the last 6 hours
Windspeed hasn't been supported based on what? The vortex now is 134 kt which is borderline but the 150 kts in the past vortex message support it.
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weatherlover427
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