A look at Frederick shows that storm hit with an angle that had the storm moving west of north. Storm surges radiate out from the hurricane and that angle had more barrier island and interruption than the angle from the south southwest. The threat of this is such that a wall of water would be pushed up a bay shaped like a funnel from an angle that would have less interruption than in a storm like Frederick. Heavy to excessive rains swelling rivers flowing into the bay would add to the water back up. In addition, such a path would be very close to the refineries in southeast Mississippi. In short, this is our ultimate fear for Ivan. The angle at New Orleans is such that this would not be that cities worst case. And while this could be as bad as it gets further east should the storm veer and go in southeast of Mobile, that would spare what would be the worst nightmare possible for this large city.
He also says the track will have implications for all the oil refineries just outside of the MS Delta - this is obvious and something all of us have considered at one point or another. Finally, he is again making references to Isidore and Lili, and is pretty confident now that Jeanne will be coming into the Gulf next week at this time. Stay tuned.
