For many years I have noticed that an active tropical season often ushers in a cold and stormy Winter season.
Your thoughts on this theory of mine.
Active Tropics = Harsh Winter
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donsutherland1
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Re: Active Tropics = Harsh Winter
BigEyedFish,
Once one gets above 15 named storms during a season, a sizable majority of winters that followed that hurricane season had a profile that was more or less along the following lines:
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast: Colder than normal
Southwest and Southern Plains: Warmer than normal
Since 1851, such winters were as follows:
1887-88
1933-34
1936-37 (a big exception to the above profile)
1969-70
1995-96
2003-04
However, once one gets to 15 named storms or below, the relationship quickly falls apart. Such winters that followed, let's say 14 or 15 named storms included the dreaded 2001-02 winter, Winter 1998-99, Winter 1990-91, etc.
In my view, while one should consider tropical activity, such activity by itself likely does not offer too much insight into the coming winter except if it is at extraordinary levels.
Once one gets above 15 named storms during a season, a sizable majority of winters that followed that hurricane season had a profile that was more or less along the following lines:
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast: Colder than normal
Southwest and Southern Plains: Warmer than normal
Since 1851, such winters were as follows:
1887-88
1933-34
1936-37 (a big exception to the above profile)
1969-70
1995-96
2003-04
However, once one gets to 15 named storms or below, the relationship quickly falls apart. Such winters that followed, let's say 14 or 15 named storms included the dreaded 2001-02 winter, Winter 1998-99, Winter 1990-91, etc.
In my view, while one should consider tropical activity, such activity by itself likely does not offer too much insight into the coming winter except if it is at extraordinary levels.
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hurricanedude
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PurdueWx80
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I've heard things slightly different than the 15-storm rule, but I don't know enough about it to be certain. Apparently winters in the US are colder and snowier when the previous hurricane season saw high-US landfalls. I've heard this from Joe Bastardi and a number of other climatologists. I guess we'll find out in a few months. Meanwhile, up here in IN we've been having the warmest weather of the entire summer.
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Remembering that hurricanes are essentially heat engines, whereby the heat released during the formation of raindrops (latent heat of fusion) rises high into the atmosphere near the storm center. This air flows toward the North Pole. It's like a chimney, somewhat, and the air that rises from hurricanes kind of stacks up at the North Pole and eventually sinks, forcing masses of cold air to migrate south again. Ergo, the more hurricanes, the greater the polar pressure to release the displaced air from the tropics. Anyway, just my theory, which supports the thread.
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donsutherland1
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PurdueWx80,
Yes, I believe JB talks about landfalling storms rather than number of storms. One of the possible analogs (1969-70) featured a winter that followed an active hurricane season with at least one intense landfalling hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico region. That proved to be a cold winter in the East and warm one in the west.
Yes, I believe JB talks about landfalling storms rather than number of storms. One of the possible analogs (1969-70) featured a winter that followed an active hurricane season with at least one intense landfalling hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico region. That proved to be a cold winter in the East and warm one in the west.
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cloud_galaxy
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bartman wrote:Remembering that hurricanes are essentially heat engines, whereby the heat released during the formation of raindrops (latent heat of fusion) rises high into the atmosphere near the storm center. This air flows toward the North Pole. It's like a chimney, somewhat, and the air that rises from hurricanes kind of stacks up at the North Pole and eventually sinks, forcing masses of cold air to migrate south again. Ergo, the more hurricanes, the greater the polar pressure to release the displaced air from the tropics. Anyway, just my theory, which supports the thread.
Sounds very convincing to me. It's a kind of "atmospheric gulfstream".
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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leeanninfla
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Amanzi wrote:Well I know snow in Florida is a very rare occurance, but I just pray for the sake of the citrus farms that the freezes stay away! They have had a very rough ride this hurricane season and will take a long time to recover.
We had snow flurries in Miami, FL when I was in 6th grade, that would have been 1977 was in January if I remember correctly. I remember looking out the library window all day just waiting, and I saw them. First time ever to see snow of any kind.
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leeanninfla
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Amanzi wrote:Well I know snow in Florida is a very rare occurance, but I just pray for the sake of the citrus farms that the freezes stay away! They have had a very rough ride this hurricane season and will take a long time to recover.
We had snow flurries in Miami, FL when I was in 6th grade, that would have been 1977 was in January if I remember correctly. I remember looking out the library window all day just waiting, and I saw them. First time ever to see snow of any kind.
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. but there was lots of cold...-
Stephanie
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Don - I remember all of the discussions we had LAST winter about the relationship between the tropics and the winter. If last summer's Lili & Isabel were an indication of this past winter, I could definately see HD's scenerio occuring! 
However, I remember when we had those discussions last year, we didn't have any conclusive evidence that there was some type of relationship between the two.
However, I remember when we had those discussions last year, we didn't have any conclusive evidence that there was some type of relationship between the two.
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SacrydDreamz
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