new jeanne forecast

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004forecast.html

graphic soon, sorry this was was rushed, I am kind of busy this evening

[Derek Ortt]

was rushed soo much that I put in the wrong coordinates, the correct ones are in now

[rainstorm]

derek, do you think at some point ivan will interfere with jeanne and weaken it? at 4 days they wont be all that far apart.

[caribepr]

darn I was hoping it was wrong, since I'm 18.33 x 65.33...winds are starting now and my goofy landlord has come in from sailing...that worries me more than ANY forecast, he's usually not back before midnight.

[Derek Ortt]

graphics finally available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

[SeaBrz_FL]

Looks great (for me) ... sorry Carolinas

[MysticOne]

graphics finally available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

Derek - Thanks so much for all the work you do on these boards. You are certainly a wealth of information. As a newbie here, I read all of your posts first and foremost. I don't understand much of the complexities of weather, but you are most helpful and informative.

You have been a true "port in the storm" for many of us!

Thanks again

[HurricaneQueen]

Agreed, SeaBrz, but I can't stand to see these things going toward any land mass anymore. I've been a tropical weather lover for many years but never have I been so emotionally involved in it as this year. (One exception was 1995 Luis Cat 4 experience on St. Maarten but that's a whole 'nother story many here have heard over the years).

I am gaining more respect for Mother Nature every day.

Lynn

[Greybeard7]

Well, it's still a very long ways off and the coast of NC has been lucky so far this year. As active as this season has gotten, after a slow start, I was beginning to wonder if we might escape a direct hit this year.

Jeanne might be our turn in the bucket. Fortunately, we can hope for a fish and no one gets hit.

The lack of storms and/or depressions far out in the Atlantic during the early season made me wonder if SST's might build higher than normal providing more fuel for later storms. Maybe the knowledgeable folks here can tell me if that has had any influence this year.

GB7

[bwstg]

graphics finally available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

this is nothing different than what the NHC has...

[x-y-no]

graphics finally available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

this is nothing different than what the NHC has...

So? If he agrees with the NHC he shouldn't say so?

[Wannabewxman79]

Man this looks like the path that all the hurricanes hit us take......geezzzzz.....I thought we would make it out of this season without one.

[bwstg]

graphics finally available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

this is nothing different than what the NHC has...

So? If he agrees with the NHC he shouldn't say so?

if he is going to post something different than fine, but if he is going to post the same darn thing, then what is the use. x-y-no?

[MiaMom]

Hey, he doesn't have to qualify his forecast by comparing it with the NHC. He is affiliated with a completely separate forecasting entity. It's a good thing when different mets & forecasting organizations say the same thing.

[cswitwer]

Derek,

The NOAA Wavewatch site (http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/main_int.html) when I run the animated version of WNA for wind speed (WNA 20040914 t18z 180h forecast) shows Jeanne hesitating at about 25N and then turning W, then almost WSW.

I know you're WAY busy tonight, but I was wondering if in the next few days when you look at Jeanne you could address this. Is there some system out there that might impact her and keep her lower than the Carolinas? Just curious. Your tracks will tell in time, so if you're busy don't worry about it.

Thanks for being out there, man.

chris

[Derek Ortt]

so I agree with the NHC... whoopdedo. I dont even look at their products before releasing ours. I am sure as the hell not going to change the forecast just to show a different track than NHC (in fact, 95% of the tracks are quite similar)

[cswitwer]

I say we lay off Derek and appreciate him for the darn good forecaster he is.

If you don't have a met. degree, please stop point out that Derek is still earning his. If you do have one, then you probably know how to research his credentials privately if you're curious.

Sorry for being so bold. I just hate to see him get flack when he does so much to keep everybody informed.

[wxwatcher2]

Tnx Derek. Two opinions are always better than one.

My attention is still on Ivan at the moment. It seems that one storm is always out there to take the place of the preceeding one this season.
No rest for us Storm enthusiasts.

Pray for those in Ivan's path.