Doesn't appear to be a due N movement

[HollynLA]

If you look at the radar since this morning, this is some westerly motion to the N movement, more like NNWN. I've not really seen a due N movement except for a N wobble. It may not seem like much but it is since it's so close to land. I'm thinking a Pascagoula, MS landfall rather than Mobile. Anyone else agree?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[Cape Verde]

I don't know about landfall, but I agree Ivan isn't moving due north yet.

[AlabamaDave]

If you look at the radar since this morning, this is some westerly motion to the N movement, more like NNWN. I've not really seen a due N movement except for a N wobble. It may not seem like much but it is since it's so close to land. I'm thinking a Pascagoula, MS landfall rather than Mobile. Anyone else agree?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

The eye is so large, it seems like a Pascagoula landfall would also essentially be a Mobile Landfall!

[x-y-no]

"NNWN"?

There actually is a proper term for this direction - it's "north by west."

[Ixolib]

If you look at the radar since this morning, this is some westerly motion to the N movement, more like NNWN. I've not really seen a due N movement except for a N wobble. It may not seem like much but it is since it's so close to land. I'm thinking a Pascagoula, MS landfall rather than Mobile. Anyone else agree?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

I Agree Holly. BTW... Love your new compass direction (NNWN)!!

[B-Bear]

It does look like it's about 350, which is about where they've been calling it. The thing is, that IS just west of due north, and if it doesn't make the right shift they are expecting prior to landfall, N.O. may get more than what they're planning on right now.

[BayouVenteux]

If you look at the radar since this morning, this is some westerly motion to the N movement, more like NNWN. I've not really seen a due N movement except for a N wobble. It may not seem like much but it is since it's so close to land. I'm thinking a Pascagoula, MS landfall rather than Mobile. Anyone else agree?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

I'm not sure about the exact final point at which it will cross the coast Holly, but from what I have read on the Mobile NWS website, it will make a substantial difference in the storm surge impact...and the chances of even greater catastrophe...in the north end of Mobile Bay:

THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER MOBILE BAY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FEET...AT A MINIMUM.
HOWEVER...IF IVAN'S TRACK WERE TO SHIFT EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST...(SAY OVER MOBILE COUNTY)...THE STORM SURGE COULD BE IN THE 16 TO 18 FEET IN THE NORTH END OF THE BAY. THE LATTER FIGURE INCLUDES THE FACT THAT TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. ALSO GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK...THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA ...GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH WILL SHARE IN THE 8 TO 10 FEET SURGE GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY ARE TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK.

[HollynLA]

"NNWN"?

There actually is a proper term for this direction - it's "north by west

Sorry but I think most know what I mean.

[opera ghost]

I see it as well. Don't know what it means- but I see it.

[Ixolib]

"NNWN"?

There actually is a proper term for this direction - it's "north by west

Sorry but I think most know what I mean.

Just funnin' with 'ya... Yes, we know.

[HollynLA]

BayouV, I sure hope most residents in Mobile have left. Is there anyone here from Mobile who decided to stay. I sure hope I'm wrong about lanfall for Mobile's sake.

[JMGNole]

I was just looking at the doppler and noticed that it was a bit left of due north.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

[HollynLA]

I'm very curious to see if the NHC lists the movement as due N at the 1pm CDT advisory. If so, I just won't understand.

[Lockhart]

If you look at the forecast points, Ivan is *right* where they have forecast. So, if you are worried he isn't doing what they thought he'd do, don't worry yet.

[FritzPaul]

350 motion would still be N in the NHC's eyes.

[wxman57]

Looks like near Pascagoula or maybe the MS/AL border to me. I ran a SLOSH model for a Cat 4 hurricane hitting just west of Mobile and got a surge of 10-13 feet on Dauphin Island and 18.5 feet in northern Mobile Bay.

I also reworked the wind radii based upon numerous observations and accounting for frictional reduction to the west and came up with the 60 mph wind radius on the extreme east side of New Orleans. So a track toward Pascagoula would mean 50-60 mph wind in New Orleans (east side). They'll be just on the outer part of the CDO.

[wxman57]

350 motion would still be N in the NHC's eyes.

Yep, there are 16 compass directions with 22 1/2 deg for each heading. So just over 11 degrees either side of 360 = north.

[Ixolib]

350 motion would still be N in the NHC's eyes.

Way offshore, I believe that would make good sense. However, maybe that wouldn't be so sensible closer in where 10, or 15, or 20 miles can make a big difference.

[pojo]

There has been some toggling over the past couple of days, but Ivans movement is somewhat staying on a Northerly pattern. In Tropical Wx, toggling is common.

[Ixolib]

350 motion would still be N in the NHC's eyes.

Yep, there are 16 compass directions with 22 1/2 deg for each heading. So just over 11 degrees either side of 360 = north.

Very Interesting - Thans!!