5AM JEANNE NHC Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 160902
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 295/8. JEANNE HAS ACTUALLY
BEEN MOVING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE MONA PASSAGE FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT A MORE
REPRESENTATIVE 24-HOUR MOTION IS 295 DEGREES. THIS MOTION...COULD
BRING JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
LATER TODAY. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE JEANNE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS BUT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS WHICH HAS
IMPORTANT RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE LONGER FORECAST PERIODS. THE
GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET AND GUNS END UP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST US
COASTLINE IN 120 HOURS. THE GFS TRACK MOVES A LOT SLOWER AND ALLOWS
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE FROM THE NORTH TO BLOCK THE SYSTEM AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE IT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN
THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK.

JEANNE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE CIRCULATION...AS SEEN BY THE
SAN JUAN RADAR...AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE LATEST RECON REPORTED A 989 MB PRESSURE AND A
DROPSONDE MEASURED A 63 KT SURFACE WIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL.
OBVIOUSLY...IT IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY BUT IS ABOUT TO
INTERACT WITH THE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THEREFORE...I AM GOING TO KEEP IT AT 60 KTS DURING THIS INTERACTION
AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS CALL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH THE MODERATE SHEAR FORECAST FOR THE SYSTEM IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN IN THE LONGER RANGE AND
THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.8N 68.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 19.4N 69.2W 60 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 20.4N 70.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 21.2N 72.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 22.3N 74.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 24.4N 77.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 27.0N 78.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 30.0N 79.0W 85 KT