Not So Super of Late..

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

Not So Super of Late..

#1 Postby Aquawind » Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:29 pm

http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/internet/0 ... index.html
0 likes   
Top
dennis1x1

#2 Postby dennis1x1 » Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:53 pm

lol....precisely predicting landfall 72 hours in advance?


WHO NEEDS EM!!!



*rolling eye thingy*
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Pebbles
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1994
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 1:42 pm
Location: New Lenox, IL (SW of Chicago)

#3 Postby Pebbles » Thu Sep 16, 2004 1:54 pm

Interesting article..thanks for sharing Aquawind.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Wthrman13
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 502
Joined: Sun Jul 06, 2003 12:44 pm
Location: West Lafayette, IN
Contact:
Contact Wthrman13

#4 Postby Wthrman13 » Thu Sep 16, 2004 2:12 pm

That was a surprisingly good article on NWP for the likes of CNN.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

#5 Postby Aquawind » Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:55 pm

I just had to add this after being in the cone for so long and seeing what happened with Ivan..Even the 2 and 3 day forecasts from the NHC were off as it was pointing for the Eastern Gulf for a long time..

On Saturday the 10th 5am Forecast:

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 19.3N 80.1W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 82.5W

Actual:
12/0600Z THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...18.4 N... 80.4 W
13/0600Z THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...19.9 N... 83.5 W

So the 48 hour forecast was ~62 miles N and ~20 miles E of actual.
The 72 hour forecast was ~150 N and ~69 E.

Can't always trust those 2 and three days even...much more so the 4 and 5 day forecasts..It took them 36 hours to adjust the forecast to the NW of the Isle of Youth and it was never even close to that..Talk about the model ride... :roll:

Not bashing the NHC whatsoever..They are awesome usually..

Fortran woah...darn near chisel and hammer....lol..similar results sometimes.. :roll:
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 52 guests