Tropical storm Jenne 55 knots....

[Matthew5]

700
WTNT41 KNHC 170828
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS INLAND NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DID NOT PENETRATE THE EYE FEATURE BUT IT
MADE A RADAR FIX INSTEAD. THE CREW REPORTED THAT THE EYE WAS
CIRCULAR AND ROUGHLY 15 N MI IN DIAMETER. SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER
THE ECLIPSE SUGGEST THAT JEANNE IS NOT AS STRONG AS A FEW HOURS AGO
SINCE THE EYE FEATURE CAN NOT LONGER BE OBSERVED AND CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED. THIS WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND WAS
ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS KIND OF SURPRISING THAT JEANNE HAS
KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN AFTER BEING OVER LAND FOR A
ABOUT A DAY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 55 KNOTS
BASED ON A MAX WIND FROM THE RECON OF 63 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT
JEANNE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH HISPANIOLA FOR 12 MORE HOURS AND IF
SURVIVES...IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT IS GOOD TO POINT OUT THAT...HISTORICALLY...
NOT MANY TROPICAL CYCLONES SURVIVE THE PATH ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF HISPANIOLA.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY STEER JEANNE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT
5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A STRONG
TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND PARTIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN...WILL FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...THE TRACK
FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL BECOME REPLACED BY A RATHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH EVENTUALLY WOULD FORCE JEANNE WESTWARD.
THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION WHAT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
MAY BE THREATENED BUT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH RISK ALL
THE WAY FROM FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.5N 70.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 70.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 21.3N 72.5W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 23.0N 74.0W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 25.0N 75.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 27.0N 76.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 28.5N 77.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 80.0W 85 KT

[yoda]

Impressive.... most impressive. You have beaten me!!!

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Jeanne Advisory Number 15


Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 17, 2004


...Jeanne still drifting over northern Hispaniola...a little bit
weaker...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the island of
Hispaniola from le mole St Nicholas Haiti eastward to Santo
Domingo.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
Bahamas...including the Acklins...Crooked Island...the
Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged Islands...as well as for the
Turks and Caicos Islands.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the central Bahamas...
including Cat Island...the Exumas...Long Island...Rum Cay...and San
Salvador.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Jeanne.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that at 5 am AST...0900z
...The center of Tropical Storm Jeanne was still inland centered
near latitude 19.5 north...longitude 70.1 west or about 70 miles
...115 km...north of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

Jeanne has been moving litle during the past few hours but is
expected to resume a west-northwest track near 6 mph...9 km/hr
later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph...100
km/hr...in small area to the north of the center with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is expected while the cyclone interacts
with Hispaniola but could regain hurricane status during the next
day or two.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb...29.29 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
along the north coast of the Dominican Republic today.

Rainfall accumulations of 9 to 13 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected over the Dominican Republic. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. A
rainband trailing Jeanne is located just to the south and southeast
of Puerto Rico and it has the potential to produce additional
rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...locally higher...over
portions of that island.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic tonight.

Repeating the 5 am AST position...19.5 N... 70.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 992 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am
AST.

Forecaster Avila

[yoda]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

FL EAST COAST... JACKSONVILLE?

[ericinmia]

Damn Cone of Death...
Check what DT wrote at wxrisk.com
-Eric

[ericinmia]

Here is a really good model comparison....
THIS IS NOT THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...

but it does take the different model runs into account to create a consensus... intalligently i might add.. it does not simply round the tracks...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... 00/M4.html

-Eric

[yoda]

Yup saw it. I must agree... but there is still a chance, although slim, this could reach the Carolinas.

[ericinmia]

i agree... it could very well reach south carolina. I believe at this point we have to wait and see... it all depends on how far north she trecks before being pushed back west.

Also Ivan is not going to stall as originally predicted so this should effect the outcome much more now.
He has actually caught up with the trough that he was supposed to miss... this will help his quick exit, and keep him from making that loop that was predicted.

Lets see...
-Eric

[ericinmia]

Oh this is too funny... look at what the model consensus finally predicted (it hadn't run when i originally linked it)
WHAT A TEASE for florida....
POOR Bahamas...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... phase1.png
-Eric

[yoda]

Oh this is too funny... look at what the model consensus finally predicted (it hadn't run when i originally linked it)
WHAT A TEASE for florida....
POOR Bahamas...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/con ... phase1.png
-Eric

Lol, yes it is... but I don't think that would happen... but we will have to see.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Jeanne really doesn't impress me....I wouldn't be surprised if it weakens to a depression while hanging around the DR

[Juno Beach]

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr_images/2004/aj/UHAJ_2.GIF

I guess they're sticking to their guns. It will be interesting to see who blinks first, Accuweather or the NHC. I get the feeling that these two organizations share all the love of say a Dodgers/Giants or Yankees/Red Sox series in late September.

[Steve H.]

This is all predicated on the idea tht she will survive, which I believe she will, but she needs to start moving soon. SHould she survive rel;atively intact she will intensity greater than the guidance is showing, probably CatIII at 72 hours.