Hurricane Javier forecast one(My forecast)

[Matthew5]

I will make Advisories for any tropical cyclone that crosses 22 north...between 140 to 108 west...

Hurricane Javier...
Advisory 1#
9-17-2004
4:30pm pst...

Hurricane Javier becomes the first tropical cyclone to cross into the Northeastern Pacific, north of 22 north this hurricane season...

The tropical cyclone at this time is fairly well defined on both Visible/Ir Satellite...The system is moving to the northwest near 8 mph. With Max winds of 90 mph...Javier at this time is currently has a T number of 4.5/4.5...Which is down from earlier this morning 5.5/5.5...4.5/4.5 pretty much matchs with currernt satellite of the torpical cyclone. So the winds will by droped down from the nhc 105 to a 90 mph at this time. The system has very nice outflow banding. With the stable air just to the west starting around 50 to 100 miles from the center of Javier...A slow weaken is expected over the next 48 hours...

The tropical cyclone is about ready to move over waters cooler then 28c over the next 12 hours. But if the cyclone stays closer to the baja it has above 26c waters up to 28 north...Remember the water west of 115 west drops off fast...The stable air is also west of the system like discused earlier. So a slow run down of the system should happen over the next 12 to 24 hours...The upper level shear over the system is very low around 10 knots...But the cyclone should move into more shear of 20 knots north of 26 to 28 north...Also to note is the shear to the north of the cyclone is going down. So we will have to wait to see a trend.

The cyclone should be picked up by a trough moving down the west coast. Which should push the tropical cyclone into the Baja over the next few days. Computer models...The gfdl pushs the system into the Baja around 27 north/113 west. Which the model takes it north to north-northwest. Then turns the system to the northwest around 36 hours slaming the cyclone into the coast at 48 hours. The Avn fellows that track closely...While the cmc is the right leaner of the models at this time taking the tropical cyclone inland near 25 north. Because of how good the cmc has done on Atlatnic tropical cyclones this season the track is leaned to the Cmc. But just south of the Avn and the Gfdl.

This cyclone should make landfall with in the next 48 hours...It is expected to be a strong tropical storm...


Forecast winds
Now 90 mph
6 80 mph
12 75 mph
24 60 mph
36 55 mph
48 50 mph(Landfall on Baja)
60 30 mph(Depression over land)
72 20 mph(Over the southwestern United states)

The next forecast around 12am pst...This forecast is unoffial please listen to the nhc...

Forecaster Matthew...