The eastern coast of FL. maybe at risk for a major hurricane

[Weatherman911]

The Larry Cosgrove report for Sat. 9/18/04 4 am EDT.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

(monitoring tropical or subtropical disturbances in the oceanic theaters of the northern hemisphere)

You may be confused by the continued wide spread among the numerical models in the handling of Tropical Storm Jeanne just north of Hispaniola. Jeanne has remained diffuse in large part due to vertical shear produced by a TUTT signature over Bermuda. And interaction with the mountains of the Dominican Republic has not helped. But the circulation will pull a bit further northward during the next 48 hours into warm waters, and the upper level feature looks to move northeast, relaxing the vertical profile issues. So Jeanne looks to become a hurricane within a couple of days. With steering currents null through Day 4 (the ridge over the Great Lakes and Northeast cancels out a formative trough over the central Atlantic Ocean, leaving the tropical cyclone in the void), Jeanne should chew up the Turks and Caicos before finally making its westward push toward FL. While I think that the European and English outlooks are somewhat slow, I think the eastern coast of the Sunshine State is at risk for a major hurricane around or after September 23/24. It is entirely possible that Jeanne could track across the FL Peninsula toward the central Gulf Coast after that time, following the rim of the huge high pressure cell.


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[Weatherman911]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 182034
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004

HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JEANNE THAT WAS TRACKED SINCE IT MOVED AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA HAS RUN WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND IS DISSIPATING.

SURFACE DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT A NEW CENTER HAS REFORMED UNDER THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. THIS BY NO MEANS INDICATES A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAND TURK. AN UPPER-LOW WHICH GLOBAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING TO MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN...INSTEAD MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE AND AMPLYFIED... DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS RESULTED IN WEAKENING. NOW THIS NEW CENTER LOCATION IS UNDER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. IT IS ONLY BEING SHIFTED EASTWARD DUE TO THE REFORMATION. JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A RATHER STRONG HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE TROUGH AND DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH JEANNE MOVES...THE CYCLONE COULD BE BLOCKED AND MOVE WESTWARD OR COULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE TROUGH. SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP JEANNE NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. IN FACT...NOW ALL THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WITHIN THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD OR LONGER.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 22.0N 72.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 22.9N 72.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 24.1N 72.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 25.7N 72.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 27.0N 72.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 28.5N 71.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 28.5N 71.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 28.5N 71.5W 65 KT

$$

[Weatherman911]

Here's an infrared satellite image of Jeanne. All the satellite images are having trouble today. It's not your tv, it's the satellite image that has the lines in it. Maybe it will be fixed soon!!

IR satellite view of Jeanne by noaa/msfc:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =ir&zoom=2

More satellite images at Lou's Weather Watch

Lous Weather Watch
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