Morning Jeanne forecast... generally toward florida w/ loop

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:20 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004forecast.html

graphics will be available in about 10 minutes

#2 Postby **Deenac813** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:29 am

Great forecast as usual Derek. Thanks for your insight!

Derek Ortt · #3 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:33 am

graphics now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

KWT · #4 Postby **KWT** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:35 am

thanks Derek!!

Guest · #5 Postby **Guest** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:36 am

Subtropical means great surf.

#6 Postby **TampaFl** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:51 am

Surfs Up!!!!! :eek:

rainstorm · #7 Postby **rainstorm** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:03 am

thats yesterdays forecast.

rainstorm · #8 Postby **rainstorm** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:05 am

can someone just say what dereks forecast is?

Derek Ortt · #9 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:06 am

that's the new forecast

need to clear your browser cache

rainstorm · #10 Postby **rainstorm** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:10 am

still yesterday. whats the forecast?

#11 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 10:29 am

Mine's correct- 1500 9/19/04.

Josephine96 · #12 Postby **Josephine96** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 1:38 pm

I'm not ready to say it's coming towards Fla again lol.. It'll take forever to get here..

Guest · #13 Postby **Guest** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 2:46 pm

Models have changed---no more west loops. East or North now. Also, look at the lastest infared. Not that healthy a storm. Also a cold front coming--see if she does much now.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

#14 Postby **TampaFl** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 3:08 pm

Not looking healthy dr461????? Sure looks healther today than yesterday at this time :eek:

.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROPFXUS62 KTBW 191727/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Robert 8-)

farmwx · #15 Postby **farmwx** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 3:13 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:graphics now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl112004graphics.html

Okay. Is what derek wrote current. I see the 15th, and why is it similar to the NHC? I don't get it. Why duplicate efforts Derek?

Green represents forecast from 0-72 hours from 1200 UTC (8 A.M. EDT, Sept 19) Sept 15, 2004, while red represents forecast for 72-120 hours. Users are reminded that forecasts beyond 72 hours are subject to large error and should be used with extreme caution. In addition, a tropical cyclone is not a single point. A tropical cyclone passing near but not over a particular point, will still bring severe weather to that point.

Derek Ortt · #16 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 3:19 pm

those tropical models all have gfs initial conditions; thus, they all go to the east.

NOGAPS and CMC has a south motion in a few days in almost the same spot

Derek Ortt · #17 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 3:21 pm

the 15th is a typo and I dont even consult with nhc products

why is it that everyone wants me to have nwhhc forecasts different from nhc. if those want a controversy, please look elsewhere, as thats not the reason as to why we are forecasting. a similar forecasts shows that the forecast is somewhat straight forward based upon the dynamics of the atmosphere

#18 Postby **tronbunny** » Sun Sep 19, 2004 3:27 pm

farmwx,

you haven't been here long, so, please check out
http://www.nwhhc.com/
and find out about the nwhhc.
Derek Orrt and another forecaster there are consultants that work for the University of Miami.
see the thread "derek orrt"http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=45107&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
this should give you some more about why derek does what he does.

Morning Jeanne forecast... generally toward florida w/ loop

Morning Jeanne forecast... generally toward florida w/ loop

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