ENSO and the 2004 season

[tronbunny]

Just food for thought...

Could "our" difficulty in prediciton of 2004 storms behavior have anything to do with the weak ElNino that has developed?

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2317.htm

NOAA ANNOUNCES THE RETURN OF EL NIÑO

Sept. 10, 2004 — NOAA declared today that El Niño is back but this time around in a weaker state. "El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to last through early 2005," said Jim Laver, director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "At this time it is not clear what, if any, impacts this event will have on ocean temperatures in the classical El Niño region along the west coast of South America and on temperature and precipitation in the United States."

And could it possibly suppress further storms this season and give us a break next year?

[Stormsfury]

As expected, the ENSO being in a weak ENSO has not affected the 2004 season one bit ... although, IMHO, after late October/November, the season will likely shut down for the year ... and as for 2005, the weak ENSO has a better than average chance of abating and may not disrupt the 2005 season ... more on that after the 2004 season ends ...

SF

[tronbunny]

thanks for the thoughts, SF.