I strongly feel the NHC 5 day fcast should be shelved

[LarryWx]

I strongly feel that the NHC 5 day fcast should be shelved. The science is not even close to being far enough advanced to make the 4 and 5 day forecasts accurate enough to both prevent unnecessary panic as well as making the NHC look bad. I'd like to see it go back to three days, with perhaps only a cone of uncertainty for days 4 and 5. if that.

[yoda]

Hmm. This is an interesting point. However, I think that the 5 day track is a good idea IMO.

[TLHR]

It should be shelved.

The forecasts for Ivan swung from Wilmington, NC to New Orleans, LA.
Way too inaccurate.

At TLHR, I am no longer posting statements based upon 5 day forecasts.

[LarryWx]

It should be shelved.

The forecasts for Ivan swung from Wilmington, NC to New Orleans, LA.
Way too inaccurate.

At TLHR, I am no longer posting statements based upon 5 day forecasts.

I think TLHR should be commended for taking that important step. Maybe the NHC will surprise us and follow TLHR's example.

[senorpepr]

I agree with Yoda on this. I agree with the 5 day forecast. It's a good indicator. The NHC does stress that there is a large margin of error on days 4 and 5, and I feel that is good enough.

[ajaxw]

At TLHR, I am no longer posting statements based upon 5 day forecasts.

What and where is TLHR?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Also many companies have pushed for this 5 day forecast so they can get an idea of what to do. Case in point like oil workers in the Gulf of Mexico... Like it or not the 5 day forecast is here to stay! Plus the fact I do believe that the NHC will do every thing it its power to make that forecast more reliable...

[LarryWx]

I agree with Yoda on this. I agree with the 5 day forecast. It's a good indicator. The NHC does stress that there is a large margin of error on days 4 and 5, and I feel that is good enough.

However, the problem lies with the media outlets (especially local ones affected by a particular storm track) who take the 5 day point as a good indication of where the storm will be moving as opposed to an educated guess AT BEST and a shot in the dark at worst.

[LarryWx]

At TLHR, I am no longer posting statements based upon 5 day forecasts.

What and where is TLHR?

I don't know, but once "TLHR" starts emphasizing that it no longer has 5 day forecasts, I bet more and more people will learn about it and gain respect for it due its very bold decision.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Unfortunately the Hurricane Center cannot control the media. It is the media's responsiblity to report the facts accurately and not put any sort of possible spin or twist to it just to get ratings... Where I live I am lucky enough to have local mets who tell it like it is being very stressful about pointing out the large amount of error involved in the 5 day forecast.

[SacrydDreamz]

I see the benefit of a 4 and 5 day "forecast." The NHC admits there are large errors, on average, with their 4 and 5 day products... the point right now isn't 100% accuracy. Anyone who takes their 4 and 5 day products as a declaration of what's going to happen is a fool, plain and simple. The 4 and 5 day forecasts are just outlining general ideas with the same precision that 3 day forecasts had 20 years ago. We've come a long way, and we're moving in the right direction by attempting to forecast beyond 3 days. To suggest that we abandon this is silly IMO.

The NHC needs to do a better job with PR IMO as people really don't even have a clue what the 4/5 day forecast is really and how much better hurricance forecasting has become in the pasy quarter century. The media is going to hype storms regardless of what the NHC says.... so I see no harm at all in the 4/5 day product.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I agree with you Sacred Dreamz! Just like the 3 day forecast has improved over the years due to better technology and improved understanding of tropical weather, I am confident that the 5 day forecast will get better as we continously improve our knowledge of the weather...

[LarryWx]

In addition, many of the local outlets' viewers will likely see the track and asume that is where the storm is going to go regardless of how much the local media outlet qualifies it. That means "Panic City" if that is to your own hometown. I witnessed this recently with Jeanne. That's why I'm so concerned about this.

[senorpepr]

In addition, many of the local outlets' viewers will likely see the track and asume that is where the storm is going to go regardless of how much the local media outlet qualifies it. That means "Panic City" if that is to your own hometown. I witnessed this recently with Jeanne. That's why I'm so concerned about this.

They do that regardless. They did that 7-days out. They did that even if the track wasn't on their location. They did that then the NHC forecast only went out 3 days. The media will always do their own thing.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well unfortunately the NHC has no control over people who choose not to use common sense. And what I mean by that is even though the line in the cone may have the greatest probabilty that center of any given system will pass within 65 miles of any given point on that line, there is absolutely no guarantee that will happen! Tropical Weather forecasting is by no means an exact science and that if there is any one that nowadays thinks that weather forecasting has come to the point to where it is so exact that they can assume that it is just simply going to go down that line or very close to it may well have it coming to them for such thinking.

Simple common sense should tell any one that is in the cone to be prepared just in case the hurricane goes "off line" in the cone.

Viewers should not assume anything when it comes to tropical weather. That way they could save theirselves a lot of problems!

[HurryKane]

I vote keep it. Drama queens are drama queens and will extrapolate the track towards themselves anyway.

[adelphi_sky]

I agree with Yoda on this. I agree with the 5 day forecast. It's a good indicator. The NHC does stress that there is a large margin of error on days 4 and 5, and I feel that is good enough.

However, the problem lies with the media outlets (especially local ones affected by a particular storm track) who take the 5 day point as a good indication of where the storm will be moving as opposed to an educated guess AT BEST and a shot in the dark at worst.

Then the morons at the media outlets should be shelved.

[karenfromheaven]

The five day forecast track is necessary to calculate longer range avoidance options for mariners and other marine interests. A discussion of these calculations can be found here: http://www.floridadisaster.org/hurrican ... fety.shtml

This is a snippet:

Go & No Go Decisions To Leave Port
The decision to leave port for hurricane avoidance must be made very early. Consideration to the latest safe departure time & likely avoidance routes must be balanced with a number of other factors. Most important of these is time versus distance. The risk of damage to a vessel at sea increases as the motion of the hurricane increases towards the maximum safe speed of the vessel attempting to leave port in advance of that system. When reviewing these time/distance considerations, mariners must include the effects "squally weather" associated with the rainbands in a hurricane will have on underway preparations & movement from port. Similarly, building wind & sea conditions found at sea, ahead of the hurricane, can also hamper vessel speed & maneuverability. Recognizing these time/distance problems, it cannot be emphasized enough that early decisions to leave port in attempt to avoid hurricanes are crucial. There have been a number of recorded instances where vessels have made the right decision to leave port in attempts to avoid hurricanes, yet were still either damaged/lost because that decision came too late.

The traditional method for calculating avoidance paths and danger areas is summarized by the 1-2-3 Rule, which involves involves drawing circles around the 24, 48, and 72 hour positions and connecting tangents to the forecast track. Here is an illustration of the method: http://www.floridadisaster.org/hurrican ... /123_2.pdf
Extending this to days 4 and 5 gives us the "cone" with which we are so familiar.

Modern naval and merchant vessels are capable of generating enough forward speed to outmanuver most hurricanes in the open ocean. But here in the Gulf of Mexico, manuvering room can run out very quickly. The new Navy destroyer MOMSEN was recently commissioned here in Panama City, and then went out into the Gulf for exercises. In returned early as Frances approached, according to the local media, to allow some officers and crew with family in south Florida to disembark. She then promptly departed. I don't know for sure, but if I were her Captain, I would have been calculating my escape routes and getting myself to the Panama Canal ASAP (The MOMSEN's home port is in Washington State). I would have welcomed the extra 2 days of forecast provided by the NHC.

You can see how the NHC's picking of a central track through guidance models helps give the 1-2-3 rule a balanced estimate of the danger zone for navigation. Regards, "Captain" Karen

[crazycajuncane]

Well,

The 5 day "cone" hasn't done a lot of justice this tropical season.

Not to mention the tracks of almost every Hurricane this season changed several times or (in Charley's case) didn't hit in the right spot anyway.

I think jumping out 5 days with a major Hurricane that can stall, turn drastically, defy models.....etc... only puts fear into many people.

I agree it would help with evacuating offshore oil rigs, but they could do that without the 5 day cone. If it's heading into the gulf, get them outta there.

5 day cone needs a 5 year break. Thanks my opinion.

[Aquawind]

I feel your pain LarryWx..The NHC really got caught on this one..However I do think they should give continue to provide the 5 day forecast..Hopefully the media will figure out how to properly present the relevant data every time they go on air..