Karl forecast #5.. strong fishy

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Josephine96

Karl forecast #5.. strong fishy

#1 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:00 am

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE KARL
NJN WEATHER CENTER
1005 AM MON SEPT 20TH 2004

Hurricane Karl recently weakened back to a Category 3.. but thankfully remains a threat to only mariners despite his NW or WNW movement.

Karl still is showing a nice outflow as he treks northward. The farther north he gets.. the colder the water is which will eventually cause Karl to die out.

Karl could still restrengthen to a Cat 4.. but we don't believe he'll become a Category 5.. He should be acclerating as he moves north which would cause him to take a quicker trek to the cooler waters.

Karl is also inhibiting development of a closely following Tropical Storm Lisa. Lisa's close following may actually not help her for development as that may cause her to either get ripped apart or for her to merge with Karl and then be ripped apart.

Here's the latest paths and projections on Karl:
Today: Still a little west movement, but beginning a north turn. Max Winds: 130 mph
Tuesday: Beginning to head north. Max Winds: 135 mph
Wednesday: Accelerating a weakening trend. Max Winds: 115 mph
Thursday: Well East of Bermuda.. Rapid weakening. Max Winds: 85 mph
Friday: Probably becoming extra tropical or close to it. Max Winds: 80 mph

Track and intensity forecasts are subject to several 100 miles.

DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and should not be used in making decisions, especially life or death decisions. For more details.. please listen to local media outlets or the NHC.

As always.. comments welcomed :wink:
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James
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#2 Postby James » Mon Sep 20, 2004 10:08 am

Great forecast! 8-)

Just a question from an amateur, since Lisa is intensifying rather quickly and doesn't currently seem to be affected by Karl, do you think she will avoid being destroyed by him?
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Josephine96

#3 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 20, 2004 10:09 am

I wasn't sure at 1st.. But I {also an amateur} think Lisa will now avoid being destroyed and turn into a potent hurricane..
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#4 Postby James » Mon Sep 20, 2004 10:13 am

Thanks for answering so quickly. I agree that she will probably become a strong hurricane, especially since the eye looks like it is becoming better defined.
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#5 Postby hial2 » Mon Sep 20, 2004 10:18 am

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

WV shows Karl heading west very slowly and the through of low pressure lifting out..Until Karl makes a definite turn north...
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