0Z Canadian Global Jeanne

[montrealboy]

[MWatkins]

Throw the 00Z NOGAPS model in the loop-de-loop back into the Bahamas/close to FL/whole SE coast threat scenario. The NOGAPS run from 0Z looks almost identical to the CMC solution but a tad faster.



Dang...I thought we were rid of this thing until the slowdown tonight.

OK...I'm back in business tomorrow morning. This is the season that will not end.

MW

[CocoaBill]

Mike, Do either of these have any possible validity?

Just curious - I don't have any knowledge about models and their inherent ablities for certain features, etc.........

Thanks

[Derecho]

Mike, Do either of these have any possible validity?

Just curious - I don't have any knowledge about models and their inherent ablities for certain features, etc.........

Thanks

The performance of both the Canadian and NOGAPS on Jeanne so far has been nothing short of a complete disaster (as is typical of both relative to the other globals, particularly the Canadian, which is all but worthless for tropical prediction); they're the two WORST global models for Jeanne so far.


Both the Canadian and NOGAPS have an enormous 300+ mile error at 72 hours; Canadian has an unbelievable 620 mile error at 120 hours.

So far, by a huge margin, the top Jeanne model has been the much-maligned GFS; 125 mile error at 72 hours, and 196 miles at 120 hours.

[mobilebay]

Note. The Canadian was the ONLY model that corectly predicted the strength of the ridge during Ivan . IT maintained a NorthCentral Gulf Coast landfall while others were in Miami. I say that's pretty dad gum good. This information on models is when Ivan was in the Caribbean.