Sep 20 and storms brought to you by the letter L

[senorpepr]

Another marathon of storms continues with Lisa... Up next is Matthew, Nicole, Otto.

By the way, Lisa is the second earliest L-storm on record, behind Luis in 1995.

Below is a breakdown of what storms were active on Sep 20 between 1954 and 2003. (Note: storm numbers in parenthesis had been finalled out by NHC prior to Sep 20, numbers in brackets indicate the last storm of that season had ended prior to the aforementioned date.) If applicable, there is a listing of what date the "L" storm developed on. At the end the list is the 50 year average ('54-'03).

Please Note: Number represents the number of storms (excluding subtropical storms) thus far in the season. The start dates of the L-storm are when these systems were tropical depressions.

Active Storms on September 20, followed by the date the L-storm formed.

03 9; Sep 27
02 9, (10), 11; Sep 21
01 7; Oct 27
00 7, 8; Oct 04
99 7, 8; Nov 13
98 7, 8, 9; Oct 05
97 (5); n/a
96 (8); Oct 14
95 13; Aug 28
94 (4); n/a
93 7, 8; n/a
92 2; n/a
91 (5); n/a
90 (9); Oct 06
89 8, 9; n/a
88 8, 9; n/a
87 4, 5; n/a
86 5; n/a
85 7; n/a
84 6, (7); Dec 12
83 (3); n/a
82 4; n/a
81 8; n/a
80 6, (7), 8; n/a
79 8; n/a
78 7, 8; n/a
77 (3); n/a
76 (6); n/a
75 5, 6; n/a
74 6; n/a
73 5; n/a
72 [4]; n/a
71 7, (8), 9; Nov 12
70 (6); n/a
69 8, 9; Oct 17
68 (5); n/a
67 2, 3, 4; n/a
66 8; Nov 04
65 3; n/a
64 7; n/a
63 3, 4; n/a
62 3; n/a
61 5; n/a
60 6; n/a
59 7; n/a
58 (7); n/a
57 3, (4), (5), 6; n/a
56 (5); n/a
55 8, 9; n/a
54 (6); n/a

====
Average # of TS on Sep 20: 06.52 ('04: above average by 5.48 TSs)
Average Date for L-storm*: Oct 17 ('04: ahead of schedule by 27 days)
(remember that as the data-set becomes smaller, the date will jump around)

* L-storm occurred 26% of the time in the past 50 years.

Note: The following "30-yr averages" encompass the years 2003-1974

TS YTD vs 30yr Seasonal Average: 12 vs 9.97 (+2.03)
HR YTD vs 30yr Seasonal Average: 7 vs 5.83 (+1.17)
MHR YTD vs 30yr Seasonal Average: 5 vs 2.20 (+2.80)

[senorpepr]

2003 Tropical Storm Larry (Hit Yucatan, Mexico)
2002 Hurricane (4) Lili* (Hit Windward Is., Jamaica, Cuba, LA)
2001 Tropical Storm Lorenzo (Fish)
2000 Tropical Storm Leslie (Hit Newfoundland, UK)
1999 Super Hurricane (4) Lenny* (Hit Nrn Lesser Antilles)
1998 Hurricane (1) Lisa (Fish)
1997 None
1996 Hurricane (3) Lili (Skirted Central America, Hit Cuba, Bahamas, Bermuda, UK)
1995 Super Hurricane (4) Luis* (Hit Nrn Lesser Antilles, Newfoundland)
1994 None
1993 None
1992 None
1991 None
1990 Hurricane (1) Lili (Skirted Nova Scotia, Newfoundland)
1989 None
1988 None
1987 None
1986 None
1985 None
1984 Hurricane (1) Lili (Hit Hispaniola)
1983 None
1982 None
1981 None
1980 None
1979 None
1978 None
1977 None
1976 None
1975 None
1974 None
1973 None
1972 None
1971 Tropical Storm Laura (Hit Cntrl America)
1970 None
1969 Hurricane (2) Laurie (Hit Mexico)
1968 None
1967 None
1966 Hurricane (1) Lois (Fish)
1965 None
1964 None
1963 None
1962 None
1961 None
1960 None
1959 None
1958 None
1957 None
1956 None
1955 None
1954 None

"L" names in the past...
18% became category one hurricanes
10% became category two hurricanes
08% became category three hurricanes
06% became category four hurricanes
00% became category five hurricanes

(Names with asterisk denotes retired name)

[mobilebay]

I have really grown to love this plethera of data, I read through every night.

[msbee]

1999 Super Hurricane (4) Lenny* (Hit Nrn Lesser Antilles)

1995 Super Hurricane (4) Luis* (Hit Nrn Lesser Antilles, Newfoundland)

oh yes,we remember well, unfortunately!

[Canelaw99]

OK...so, why are some of them called "super hurricane"?????

[senorpepr]

OK...so, why are some of them called "super hurricane"?????

That's actually something I'm used to doing. You won't see the NHC call them super hurricanes since the term is actually from the military. You normally see it refered to typhoons (super typhoon), but they give the "super-" prefix to any cyclone with winds at or above 130kt. (That's why strong category four can be super hurricanes too.

[Hurricanehink]

Great work. I wonder if we'll beat 1995 at this rate

[Buck]

I said a month or two ago that I bet this year we'd get to "R" but now it looks like we might even reach "T" like 1995 did.

[senorpepr]

Here's a few more statistics.

*** REMEMBER: This is purely based on averages and should be noted that these stats are for morale purposes. ***

I. How many named storms will we see if we maintain the spurt we've been on since August 1st?

Since August 1st, we've seen 12 named storms. With 51 days, that averages to be 4.25 days per each storm. If we extrapolate from that until the end of November, we will see 16.7 additional storms. We'll round up to 17. That will give us the following storms: Matthew, Nicole Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, Walter, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, and Theta.

II. How many named storms will we see if we maintain the spurt we've been on since June 1st?

Since June 1st, we've seen 12 named storms. With 112 days, that averages to be 9.33 days per each storm. If we extrapolate from that until the end of November, we will see 7.61 additional storms. We'll round up to 8. That will give us the following storms: Matthew, Nicole Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, and Virginie.

III. How many named storms will we see if we maintained the spurt for September the rest of this month and then followed the climatological averages for October and November?

Since September 1st, we've seen 4 named storms. With 20 days, that averages to be 5 days per each storm. If we extrapolate from that until the end of September, we will see 2 additional storms. If we say October and November will see 2 and 1 additional storms, respectively, that will give us the following storms: Matthew, Nicole Otto, Paula, and Richard.

Either way you cut it... 1995's record may be on the line. Then again, we could have a slow end to the season like the beginning.