Jeanne forecast #9: By weekend.. start watching SE coast

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE JEANNE
NJN WEATHER CENTER
555 PM TUES SEPT 21ST 2004

Hurricane Jeanne is currently in the middle of doing a complete circular loop as she does where she may be going. The latest NHC path takes her to the Carolina's.. but the cone of uncertainty extends to just off the coast of SE Florida.

Jeanne is a healthy strong Category 1 as she spins around. Her days of being nearly dead appear to be well behind her. This could make her yet another major. But only time will tell.

Only time will tell where she ends up as well. The NHC appears to be pointing her in the direction of the Carolina's by early next week. But she moves West or finishes her south loop, south enough.. the track may have to be adjusted South.

Floridians do need to watch her because if she goes due west enough or WNW at a low enough latitude she could move to FLA instead of SC or NC.

For now.. despite thinking the storm could hit Fla.. I'll go with the NHC and say the storm will be Carolina bound. But this could and probably will change throughout the period.

Here is the 5 day forecast on Jeanne:
Rest of Today: Still making us dizzy. Max Winds: 95 mph
Wednesday: Possibly headed back West. Max Winds: 95 mph
Thursday: Possibly a WNW movement.. Still nowhere near land. Max Winds: 105 mph
Friday: Becoming another major perhaps. Still moving W-WNW. Max Winds: 110 mph
Saturday: Due East of Fla by several 100 miles. Max Winds: 115 mph

Track and intensity forecasts subject to errors. Some by as many as several 100 miles.

DISCLAIMER: This forecast is written by an amateur and should not be used in making decisions, especially life or death decisions. For more details, please listen to local media outlets or the NHC.

Comments welcomed as always

[djti]

wow...115mph with 50kts of shear.....Jeanne says forget it!!

hehe...seriously...what is your basis for intensity....goes against anything ive seen and all forecasts of environment Jeanne will be in


and arent those warm waters the same waters jeanne has been not strenghtening in for a couple days now?


ok..ill quit bustin your chops....a major hurricane is clearly out of the question though...

[Josephine96]

I guess there's 1 thing I forgot to study.. I didn't know there was that much shear or that there would be that much shear..

{is allowed to make mistakes} lol.. I'll revise them tomorrow..

[djti]

hehe....hey...your forecast is bound to be tons better than joe bastardis!!


well the nhc summed up the 3 - 5 day forecast by saying......slow weakening or rapid weakening...depending on how fast she goes west.

time will tell..

[Josephine96]

Ah ok.. DJ.. thank you..

[Deenac813]

Good forecast again John. I like reading yours

[Josephine96]

Thank you Deena..

[rdcrds]

Have to Laugh LOL you don't give up do you even though the NHC says there really is about 1% chance of what you are saying you will still and try and milk out replies with your doom tracks LOL.

[yoda]

Great job... where the update?

[NFLnut]

Why did I just **KNOW** that you were eventually bringing Jeanne into Florida?

[rdcrds]

Only time will tell where she ends up as well. The NHC appears to be pointing her in the direction of the Carolina's by early next week. But she moves West or finishes her south loop, south enough.. the track may have to be adjusted South.

Floridians do need to watch her because if she goes due west enough or WNW at a low enough latitude she could move to FLA instead of SC or NC.


Those 2 i HL are the only things needed in the whole summary time will tell and im sure everyone is watching LOL.

[rdcrds]

I could see the NHC say only time will Tell

[cswitwer]

In John's defense, didn't I see some models yesterday that showed Jeanne coming near-shore in south-central FL then riding the coast directly into the Outer Banks? I'll see if I can find it.

Also, shear is expected to decrease I think. See the 2nd part of Forecaster Stewart's 11am discussion. I interpreted it to hint that some strengthening could occur, but we don't really know yet.

Just my 1/2 cents worth.

Good job, John! Keep up the good work and study... I played with the Ensemble forecast last week because I believe wholeheartedly in the theory (although it needs more people to work if people like me are going to participate!). Anyway, the point is that the more I looked at the storms the more I learned that I didn't know... and the more I learned I DO know. If I keep tracking and reading this site, I might just learn to be fairly decent at it-- as you are learning, too, I'm sure.

Enjoy yourself!
chris

[Josephine96]

LOL.. I have only mentioned that it may still come to Fla.. I did NOT FLAT OUT say it was lol LMAO

[tallbunch]

everyone forgets about georgia..............

[fci]

everyone forgets about georgia..............

No we don't.
We all know that it is part of the new Soviet Union.
The Republic of Georgia!

[JtSmarts]

Also, shear is expected to decrease I think. See the 2nd part of Forecaster Stewart's 11am discussion. I interpreted it to hint that some strengthening could occur, but we don't really know yet.

Also I think that Stormsfury mentioned that when hurricanes begin to recurve it is possible that strengthening can occur, so it is still possible that Jeanne could make it to major hurricane status even if she doesn't hit land as a major. She is at 100 right now 111 isn't that far away.

[Windspeed]

wow...115mph with 50kts of shear.....Jeanne says forget it!!

hehe...seriously...what is your basis for intensity....goes against anything ive seen and all forecasts of environment Jeanne will be in


and arent those warm waters the same waters jeanne has been not strenghtening in for a couple days now?


ok..ill quit bustin your chops....a major hurricane is clearly out of the question though...

The 115kt intensity forecast by John is not that unreasonable. Though OHC is not that great at the hurricane's current position; it is decent enough to at least maintain or only slightly weaken the storm if upwelling is occurring--bringing down those 28ºC ssts right at the surface. However, the unfortunate scenario here stems from the fact that there is still substantial OHC in the northern Bahamas that also extends three degrees north and northwest of Grand Bahama and Great Abaco. There is also the Gulf Stream to the immediate west--extending far NNW of the northern Bahama islands that could assist in intensification. The Gulf Stream extends well north to 32º latitude with 28-29º ssts, about 70 miles off the coast off the southeast coastline. It also looks like the upper-level pattern from 48 to 72 hours will be much more favorable than originally forecast, with the trough not digging into the mid-levels of the hurricane. If it's only able to override the ridge, then the westerlies will be well over the 200mb level over the hurricane, streaming quickly to the N and NW. That would actually assist in exhaust, outflow and uplift for the system--especially with the ridge axis to Jeanne's NE at that time. If Jeanne is just north of the Bahamas in 3 days, we could have a significant Catagory 3 hurricane on our hands, threatening the SE coastline.