18Z GFS is continuing the westward trend of Jeanne tracks ..

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x-y-no
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18Z GFS is continuing the westward trend of Jeanne tracks ..

#1 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:02 pm

Only run out to 60 hours so far, but I'm not pleased with this trend ... :eek:
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#2 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:05 pm

Of course, the ramifications of a west outlier are huge here...
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#3 Postby wjs3 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:06 pm

Link?
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#4 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:08 pm

Ugh!

Image

Loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/850_su_loop.shtml
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#5 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:09 pm

WOW!
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#6 Postby cinlfla » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:09 pm

I just looked at the 78 hour 18 utc GFS and it shows a more westward move looks like south Florida I may be wrong though.
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#7 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:10 pm

Of course ... this is the GFS ... I can take some comfort in that. :-)
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#8 Postby Aquawind » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:11 pm

I wanna fight back.. :2gunfire:
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#9 Postby Bane » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:12 pm

Yep, feel glad it is the GFS.
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#10 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:12 pm

IMO... I wouldn't use the 06z/18z GFS... Its kind of stupid tio go by the inbetween runs of the GFS. You should only use the 00z/12z GFS. Watch later when the GFS reverts back...

AGAIN.. IMO! :D
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#11 Postby NativeFloridaGirl » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:12 pm

:cry: I don't like that at all.
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#12 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:13 pm

If this is the case, Jeanne will just ride up the coast of FL w/ that ridge to her East. We are well within the GFS' good resolution, so at least a little credit should be sent it's way. The 18Z Eta also flipped to this S. FL threat.

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#13 Postby yoda » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:15 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:If this is the case, Jeanne will just ride up the coast of FL w/ that ridge to her East. We are well within the GFS' good resolution, so at least a little credit should be sent it's way. The 18Z Eta also flipped to this S. FL threat.

Image


I beg to differ. I would only use the GFS resolution w/in 48 hours.. max 72. But I am not a met... so its IMO.
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#14 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:17 pm

What I mean is that through 84 hours, the GFS uses a higher resolution than post-84 hours. High resolution just means that the grid points where the equations are solved are closer together - which is a good thing if you want to make accurate prognostications.
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#15 Postby wjs3 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:18 pm

I'd agree with staying away form the GFS--I mean a day ago, the storm was going east at this point, according to the GFS.

What worries me (for Fla) is the trend of models are going west, west, west.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC start to shift even further west given the ETA, NOGAPS and GFS all coming around. I wonder what the next run of the Euro will say...
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#16 Postby PurdueWx80 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:19 pm

Well, this morning's run has been out for a few hours, and it has the N/S Carolina storm still.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/
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#17 Postby x-y-no » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:20 pm

wjs3 wrote:I'd agree with staying away form the GFS--I mean a day ago, the storm was going east at this point, according to the GFS.

What worries me (for Fla) is the trend of models are going west, west, west.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC start to shift even further west given the ETA, NOGAPS and GFS all coming around. I wonder what the next run of the Euro will say...


Yeah, the trend worries me too. Not that I think this is a South Florida event (at least not yet), but another landfall up around where Frances went through would be pretty bad.
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#18 Postby jdray » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:23 pm

Looks like a possible Cleo scenario is setting up.
Hit south Florida and ride it into GA.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Could be a David though.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The models that Im more curious about are the BAM models, specifcally BAMM. How accurate is that one? It has Jeanne hitting St. Augustine area.
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#19 Postby jpigott » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:25 pm

who is it that said the trend is your friend? Well let me tell you something, sitting here just north of WPB (where Florida east coast sticks her little tushy out at 80W) that trend ain't no friend of mine :x
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#20 Postby wjs3 » Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:26 pm

The BAM models are initialized using the GFS. If the GFS continues to go to the west, I wouldn't be surprised to see the BAMs--all of them--try do the same.


So, to answer your question, all of the BAMs are only as good as the GFS. Though in specific situations (like with shallow storms), they can be good.
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