rain potential from Ivan

#1 Postby **Houstonia** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 6:48 pm

Can we get off the name game and discuss the rain potential from Ivan?

Any ideas of who will get the most and how much it will be?

What is the potential of Ivan to stall once he comes inland?

Just thinking in terms of bad T.S. experiences.

How about a rain versus wind potential?

thanks!

#2 Postby **Houstonia** » Wed Sep 22, 2004 7:24 pm

... maybe the Hou/Galver/W.GOMERs are home now and can answer my question...

*whine*

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:08 pm

Maybe someone can answer your question now.

#4 Postby **Mattie** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:11 pm

Well, my personal (and I do mean personal) opinion is that no one really knows for sure. Several times today Ivan has "died", been ill, fallen apart . . and then 30 minutes later has an eye. . .

SO, according to the latest models, it seems to be hugging the coast quite a bit and in SC/SW Tx by Sunday. . .

But check back in 10 minutes and see the status <grin>. State Fair begins in Dallas this weekend and it sure would be nice for it to be cool and DRY! :-)

GalvestonDuck · #5 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:12 pm

No clue, Ker. I'm trying to figure it out myself.

x-y-no · #6 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:13 pm

Yeah, I've been wondering that too ... the Miami Hurricanes are playing in Houston tonight.

#7 Postby **Houstonia** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:13 pm

I posted this on another topic but will repost here. Uses terminology I don't like to see (significant rain event):

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED WARNINGS AND PRELIMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
328 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM IVAN CENTER HEADED FOR LA COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE SABINE THIS EVENING.

WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER
THE HURRICANE COORDINATION CALL.

WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERAL FORECAST IN ALREADY IN PLACE. AS IVANS
REMAINS GET INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE UPPER JET EXTENDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP VENTILATE
THE SYSTEM AND A SPEED MAX CURVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST (ETA
SOLUTION) WILL PUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A COUPLED JET SCENARIO
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY MORNING...THIS WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE YUCATAN WILL BE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CORE RAIN EVENT. UPDATED THE FLOOD WATCH WITH
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT MAY GET AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES.

TIDES HAVE DROPPED OFF AS EXPECTED AND WILL BE GLAD TO SEE THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING SHRUNK BACK TO THE EAST. STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN
CONFINED TO NEAR THE CENTER AND EASTWARDS...SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL
PROBABLY JUST GET A GLANCING BLOW OF WINDS.

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THOUGH SATURDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
LAKE JACKSON TO KATY TO CROCKETT.

Guest · #8 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:13 pm

I bet that State Fair is awesome!....The State is sooo big do they have more than one spot for the State Fair?

#9 Postby **Cookiely** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:14 pm

I think one of the advisories says 5 to 10 inches. I read somewhere that some areas could get twelve but I think that's a bit much.

#10 Postby **Houstonia** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:15 pm

And not to be a total pessimistic schmuck, but... with every new update on Jeanne, they have her moving more to the west before she turns north and east.

In no time at all they will be having her out in the GOM too.

Josephine96 · #11 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:16 pm

A state fair corn dog is pretty good too lol :wink:

Guest · #12 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:17 pm

With the turn they have showing Ivan moving back toward the GOM, would that slow the system down and cause it to rain over the same coverage area?

#13 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:20 pm

Hey Houstonia ... I would say anyone on the north or east side of landfalling Ivan has potential for, as the NWS guys said, significant rainfall between now and Sunday ... especially as those bands of precip roll in from the Gulf.

The satellite shows that the real significant stuff isn't so much associated with the storm's center but well east of it.

Sadly I don't know if we will get all that much here west of you ... but these landfalling tropical systems sometimes act pretty weird. Then again, it could be much ado about nothing.

#14 Postby **Houstonia** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:20 pm

NCstateWOLF wrote:With the turn they have showing Ivan moving back toward the GOM, would that slow the system down and cause it to rain over the same coverage area?

I think that, coupled with a general slowing of movement is what is causing their concern... I'm not sure though.

Guest · #15 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:23 pm

If any of you guys and gals live in the area that it crosses and have a rain gauge keep taps with us!

#16 Postby **Mattie** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:29 pm

Yep - the State Fair is awesome . . . and for true confessions - I've lived here for 12 years and last year was the first year I had ever been.

It was truly amazing, clean and well maintained - no trash on the midway, etc.

I'm excited about going back and seeing all the stuff I didn't have time to see after being there 12 hours last year.

And to keep us on topic - please leave the rain from Ivan in the South - just for this weekend please!!! :-)

Guest · #17 Postby **Guest** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:31 pm

That's going to be one of the things I put on my things to do list before I die. I want to check that State fair out! The food has to be awesome. Sorry if i'm trolling or whatever it's called i'm just curious and didn't want to start another thread when it could be answered here.

ROCK · #18 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 4:33 pm

Houstonia wrote:Can we get off the name game and discuss the rain potential from Ivan?

Any ideas of who will get the most and how much it will be?

What is the potential of Ivan to stall once he comes inland?

Just thinking in terms of bad T.S. experiences.

How about a rain versus wind potential?

thanks!

OK, home from work now....wind not a problem unless it strengthen in the next 6 hours. Rain to the N,NE...Stall?? dont have a clue at the moment....best I can do in 5 minutes... :lol:

Maybe have something more to add later...got to do my homework first

rain potential from Ivan

rain potential from Ivan

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