NWS AFD Melbourne

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KMLB 230726
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004


...HURRICANE JEANNE TAKING AIM AT THE FLORIDA EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNFICANT IMPACTS IN EC FL....DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...ISOLATED NARROW SHOWER BANDS MOVING ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE CLOUD BANDS UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO MOVE ASHORE IN THE ENE FLOW.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NOT A BAD DAY SHAPING UP FOR TODAY. STILL A LITTLE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST COAST BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS. THE
NARROW SHOWER BANDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH OVERALL COVERAGE LOW
AND WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WHEN THEY DO PASS. TEMPS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND MID 80S AT THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL MOVE ONSHORE AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODELS NOTABLY THE GFS AND UKMET ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH MID LVL RIDGE PUSHING SLOWLY EAST OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL STEER HURRICANE JEANNE ON A
WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE NRN BAHAMAS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PER THE
GFS OR A BIT FASTER BY FRIDAY EVENING IF THE UKMET SOLUTION VERIFIES.
THE 03Z NHC TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND WILL BE FOLLOWED
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRI
AND WINDY AT THE BEACHES. GFS/NGM INDICATE MEAN RH IN THE 1000-500
MB LAYER STILL FAIRLY DRY FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT WITH NE FLOW. WILL
ONLY INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING IN
OFF THE ATLC.

SAT/SUN...BY SAT...MID LVL RIDGE PUSHING SLOWLY OFF THE MID ATLC
SHOULD ALLOW JEANNE TO BEGIN TO TURN TO THE WNW TO NW. 00Z GFS SHOWS
A LANDFALL NEAR BREVARD COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HURRICANE IS
MAKING A NNW TURN. THE 00Z UKMET AND NOGAPS PREDICT LANDFALL JUST
SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE
HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHEN MAKING ITS NORTHWEST TURN.

***********************************
NOTE TO USERS REGARDING JEANNE:

WHETHER THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST...OR MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE COAST JUST OFFSHORE...THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO FEEL
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE WAVES
WILL BATTER THE BEACHES. MINIMALLY...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER MAY BE FELT. ALL EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND MAKE HURRICANE PREPARATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO TAKE ACTION. COASTAL AREAS THAT
WERE DAMAGED BY HURRICANE FRANCES WOULD BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO
THE INCREASING WINDS. IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO TAKE STEPS NOW TO
PROTECT PROPERTY IN BUILDINGS VULNERABLE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WINDS.

***********************************
MON-WED...FOLLOWED THE NHC TRACK INTO MONDAY WHICH LIFTS THE
HURRICANE NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUE/WED...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN LOW SCATTERED RANGE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECASTS.

NOTE: WIND FORECASTS ARE CAPPED IN NWS GRIDDED FORECASTS DUE TO THE
INCREASING TRACK ERROR WITH TIME WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS. WINDS ARE
CAPPED AT 50 KNOTS FROM 37 TO 72 HOURS AND 34 KNOTS FROM 73 TO 120
HOURS. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES CLOSER TO LANDFALL...WINDS MAY BE
FORECAST TO HURRICANE FORCE.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH SURF/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AND
WITH APPROACH OF JEANNE IN THE OFFING...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS TO COME. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY AND FURTHER
DETERIORATE THIS WEEKEND AS HURRICANE JEANNE APPROACHES. NOAA
WAVEWATCH MODEL SHOWS SEAS 20 TO 26 FEET AS THE CENTER OF JEANNE
NEARS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 72 85 75 / 20 10 20 20
MCO 89 71 87 73 / 20 10 20 20
MLB 87 73 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
VRB 87 73 86 76 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
...RIVER FLOOD WARNING MIDDLE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLITTO
LONG TERM...VOLKMER

[Doc Seminole]

TampaFL,

I really appreciate being able to whip through the area NWS statements you post....... however, with the new board background color, might be better to post that in bold yellow or bold green. That blue is very hard to read.