12:00 Models Ivan=60 mph, 998 mbs,Moving 310 13kt

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cycloneye
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12:00 Models Ivan=60 mph, 998 mbs,Moving 310 13kt

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:44 am

Code: Select all

  TROPICAL STORM IVAN       (AL092004) ON 20040923  1200 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040923  1200   040924  0000   040924  1200   040925  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    28.9N  92.2W   30.6N  93.5W   32.7N  94.2W   35.3N  93.2W
  BAMM    28.9N  92.2W   30.2N  93.8W   31.3N  95.0W   32.4N  95.4W
  A98E    28.9N  92.2W   30.6N  93.8W   32.5N  93.6W   35.6N  91.3W
  LBAR    28.9N  92.2W   30.9N  93.5W   33.0N  94.3W   35.5N  94.2W
  SHIP        50KTS          56KTS          59KTS          59KTS
  DSHP        50KTS          46KTS          33KTS          29KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040925  1200   040926  1200   040927  1200   040928  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    38.1N  89.8W   42.1N  79.1W   40.4N  63.8W   35.5N  55.1W
  BAMM    32.9N  95.4W   33.8N  94.5W   36.0N  92.6W   36.4N  88.8W
  A98E    37.9N  88.0W   40.8N  81.7W   42.5N  72.0W   41.4N  57.6W
  LBAR    38.0N  92.7W   41.0N  84.7W   41.6N  71.2W   41.8N  68.1W
  SHIP        55KTS          41KTS          26KTS           0KTS
  DSHP        27KTS          27KTS          27KTS           0KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  28.9N LONCUR =  92.2W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
  LATM12 =  27.1N LONM12 =  89.5W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
  LATM24 =  26.0N LONM24 =  87.3W
  WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   35KT
  CENPRS =  998MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   50NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  40NM

At the 10 AM CDT advisory Ivan will be at 60 mph.
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#2 Postby Buck » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:45 am

Thats quick.
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#3 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:47 am

60mph! WHOA :eek:
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#4 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:49 am

hmmm...is that certain or likely or just possible?
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#5 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:54 am

southerngale wrote:hmmm...is that certain or likely or just possible?


60 mph is certain at 11am. :eek:
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#6 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 23, 2004 7:58 am

k tks
I thought it wouldn't get passed 50mph. Someone forgot to tell Ivan that!
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:06 am

Could it be a hurricane again?
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#8 Postby Innotech » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:07 am

~Floydbuster wrote:Could it be a hurricane again?


wouldnt that be a hoot?
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#9 Postby HollynLA » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:14 am

60mph?? Okay, then, all bets are off with this storm. Most mets were very confident it would not go past 40. This storm is not willing to give up.
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#10 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:44 am

Anything is possible with Ivan, we've seen it before and we'll probably see it again.
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Re: 12:00 Models Ivan=60 mph, 998 mbs,Moving 310 13kt

#11 Postby donsutherland1 » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:39 am

Luis,

I'm not all that surprised that the modeling is a little more aggressive with Ivan this morning.

Last night, I was concerned that Ivan could strengthen, with most of the strengthening possibly coming just before landfall, as the Hurricane Heat Content suggested greater potential just before landfall.

The Naval Research Laboratory's Hurricane Heat Content figures for Ivan's anticipated path at the time were:

September 23 3z: 11.843
September 23 12z: 15.862
September 24 0z: 50.000

This morning's HHC projection for 9/23 18z is 50.000.

Overall, water temperatures are close to 29°C and shear is more relaxed. Therefore, I believe Ivan will make landfall with maximum sustained winds in the 55 mph to 65 mph range.
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#12 Postby ncbird » Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:48 am

I guess Ivan did not want to let Texas feel left out of the action this year so desided it was his duty to do something about it.
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Not a cloud in the sky here...

#13 Postby Houstonia » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:25 am

... in northwest Harris County.

It's hard to believe that there's a storm somewhere out there.

Anyone else worried about an Allison scenario? Ivan is forecast to hug the coast and meander toward the south for the next couple days.

However, the local NWS doesn't seem to be concerned.

Any thoughts?
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#14 Postby Johnny » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:30 am

I wouldn't be surprised if Ivan was knocking on hurricane status before coming ashore. I'm here in North Houston right now in the office and man it is a beautiful day. You wouldn't even think that things will dramatically go downhill later on this evening. Since Ivan has strengthened, I think I will call my wife to get to the store to get some batteries, water and maybe a few supplies. Nothing big but just in case we loose power for a spell.
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#15 Postby golter » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:31 am

Im in Southeast Harris County. It is beautiful here. I'm not changing any of my weekend plans yet. It is the most unimpressive 60MPH TS Ive ever seen. There is hardly and convection near the center now. Seems to have really weakend over the past couple of hours. I might get flamed for this but I do not see any scenario like Allison. Allison stuck around 5 or 6 days.
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#16 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:33 am

Rain has ceased here and the winds have become calm. Still very heavy clouds.
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#17 Postby loon » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:35 am

his convection has really died down the last 30 minutes, but he looks the best he ever has on VIS. Give him another few hours, he's is in position to really bounce back.

cheers,
the loon
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#18 Postby GalvestonDuck » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:35 am

Yup, it's beautiful for now.

http://www.galveston.com/webcams/
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#19 Postby Johnny » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:46 am

Yep, he's rapping up nicely per vis. satellite loop. I would think convection should start rapping into the circulation shortly.
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#20 Postby golter » Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:57 am

Dont bet on it... it hasnt happend in its entire trek across the gulf.
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