1pm Ivan-50 mph winds, 1003 mb pressure

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 70a

Statement as of 1:00 PM CDT on September 23, 2004

...Ivan weakens as it continues moving northwest toward the
southwestern Louisiana and the Upper Texas coasts...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for a portion of the
Gulf of Mexico coast from Morgan City Louisiana westward to Sargent
Texas.

At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Ivan was located
near latitude 29.3 north...longitude 92.8 west or about 50 miles
southeast of Cameron Louisiana. This is also about 80 miles
southeast of Port Arthur Texas.

Ivan is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph and this general
motion is expected to continue today and tonight. On the forecast
track...the center will cross the coast in the warning area later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in intensity are possible until landfall occurs.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a reconnaissance
aircraft was 1003 mb...29.62 inches.

Water levels have been running .5 to 2 feet above normal tide levels
along the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Ivan will generate an
additional 1 to 3 feet above these existing water levels.
Therefore...water elevations of 2 to 4 feet above normal are
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...are possible near the path of Ivan.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over southern Louisiana today.

Repeating the 1 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 92.8 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure... 1003 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 4 PM CDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[Johnny]

I think Ivan will be better organized when the next statement becomes available.

[DJJordan]

I agree....

[Stormcenter]

I think Ivan will be better organized when the next statement becomes available.

Looks like he "may" be going through a strengthening
cycle.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klch.shtml

[southerngale]

He still doesn't look good on satellite. Is he dying or will he get dressed and organize a little before landfall?

[golter]

Needs to make it quick, appears to me by this loop to be heading almost due N @ 8-10 MPH. Which would make landfall in a few hours.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... klch.shtml

[GalvestonDuck]

Looks NW to me on satellite. Watch the whole storm, not just the bands.

[vbhoutex]

Golter, it appears to me that you are mistaking some building convectieon to the NE of the center as a Northward movement. The clear area to it's south is not the "eye" The LLCC is clearly in the middle of all the reds to the West of that "eye" and the entire system is obviously moving WNW to NW almost paralleling the coast. MY call remains as it has been. Landfall at the mouth of th eSabine river to as far West as Port Arthur. We shall see.

[Stormcenter]

Golter, it appears to me that you are mistaking some building convectieon to the NE of the center as a Northward movement. The clear area to it's south is not the "eye" The LLCC is clearly in the middle of all the reds to the West of that "eye" and the entire system is obviously moving WNW to NW almost paralleling the coast. MY call remains as it has been. Landfall at the mouth of th eSabine river to as far West as Port Arthur. We shall see.

The interesting thing will be if Ivan stays onland or comes back
offshore as some of the models have him doing.

[djti]

vghoutex....major disagreement......the apparent "eye" is definitely the clear area to the east of the convection....and is still exposed and not under "deep reds".....visible satellite loops shows this clearly...as well as the nw bobble.....the banding on the radar and visible shots leaves little to be questioned about golters analysis of the eye...but it doesnt seem to be going due north...



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

[golter]

Golter, it appears to me that you are mistaking some building convectieon to the NE of the center as a Northward movement. The clear area to it's south is not the "eye" The LLCC is clearly in the middle of all the reds to the West of that "eye" and the entire system is obviously moving WNW to NW almost paralleling the coast. MY call remains as it has been. Landfall at the mouth of th eSabine river to as far West as Port Arthur. We shall see.

Oh I see, the round thing in the middle that has everything circulating around it is not the center. It wont make landfall west of Lake Charles...

[GalvestonDuck]

Center? Yes. Eye? No.

Moving NW on satellite.

[golter]

Duck, Im heading down to the island now (From Pasadena) to take care of some business with an unnamed large insurance company that is located on the east end of the island in only high rise building. I expect nice weather.

[GalvestonDuck]

Yup, (edit - oops!) the unnamed company's big white building.

Avoid Harborside Drive. It's almost all blocked off at The Strand because of the bike rally.

[golter]

Thanks, I though you'd figure that out.

[GalvestonDuck]

It's kinda hard not to know that building down here.

I was serious about the traffic though. I hope it's not too bad for ya.

[vbhoutex]

Golter, it appears to me that you are mistaking some building convectieon to the NE of the center as a Northward movement. The clear area to it's south is not the "eye" The LLCC is clearly in the middle of all the reds to the West of that "eye" and the entire system is obviously moving WNW to NW almost paralleling the coast. MY call remains as it has been. Landfall at the mouth of th eSabine river to as far West as Port Arthur. We shall see.

Oh I see, the round thing in the middle that has everything circulating around it is not the center. It wont make landfall west of Lake Charles...

We will continue to agree to disagree here. I have seen the WV, the visibles, the IR and I do understand what I am looking at. Some of my words are being used with other than the radar image. The one you posted showed nothing circulating around the open area to the East of the reds-it was circulatin around with the rest of the image. If I placed my cursor on the red spot in that radar shot, everything was circulating around it not the open area to its East.

We may all eat crow here if the shear doesn't abate soon!!! Everything is being blown way to the Northeast, but I still stand my my currently published track unless Ivan just gets totally blown apart, which I am starting to think is a possibility.

[LaBreeze]

Weather was pretty good a couple of hours ago - the sun made a brief appearance. Now the clouds are dark again and the rain is starting up - gusty winds once again.

[LaBreeze]

Just had several bursts of thunder as well - rain falling pretty good.

[Hou~TX~Mama]

Is all that flaring up in the middle of the gulf related to Ivan too?