JEANNE MODELS

Foladar · #2 Postby **Foladar** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:14 pm

What areas do those look like? landfall, that is..

tallbunch · #3 Postby **tallbunch** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:16 pm

I think we might get some rain

cape_escape · #4 Postby **cape_escape** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:16 pm

WPB, maybe?

#5 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:16 pm

Foladar wrote:What areas do those look like? landfall, that is..

anywhere at this point....

Zadok · #6 Postby **Zadok** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:17 pm

Southern Palm Beach County line to northern Martin County line.

#7 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:18 pm

As of now, only one of these is new...the GFDL, and it follows the NHC track almost perfectly. The rest will be out before 2 EST.

OtherHD · #8 Postby **OtherHD** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:19 pm

Ah, A98E is finally taking its proverbial SW dive into the Caribbean.

#9 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:20 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:As of now, only one of these is new...the GFDL, and it follows the NHC track almost perfectly. The rest will be out before 2 EST.

2?? it's 2:20??

#10 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:21 pm

What is the purpose of even running the A98 model if all it does is show crappy results? Why dont they just scrap the model completely or does it have some other useful features?

<RICKY>

#11 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:21 pm

EST...1:21 EST now...2:21 EDT now. I'm speaking from the frame of reference of IN...which is on a funky time (EST). Sorry for the confusion.

#12 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:24 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:EST...1:21 EST now...2:21 EDT now.

I know you are in indiana, and it's and hour difference, my time is 2:23, yours 1:23...my time is EST...EASTERN STANDARD TIME.

Steve H. · #13 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:24 pm

Now we know its a lock! WHen the A98E dives we know its coming. Like when my wife was in labor, when the teardrop fell the babies always came out 30 minutes later :eek:

#14 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:25 pm

You are on daylight savings time, EDT.

#15 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:45 pm

bump - they've been updated.

Weatherboy1 · #16 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 1:56 pm

Well, almost all the 12Z and 12UTC models are in and it looks like some (GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian) have shifted a bit S and W, while others (UKMET, GFDL and the BAMs) have shifted ever so slightly N and E. Of the majors, the only updated run I haven't seen is the ECMWF (and the models I can't access via the Internet, such as the FSU superensamble).

Bottom line: All are basically converging on a landfall point somewhere in the same neighborhood as Frances -- the central/SE coast of FL, roughly between West Palm Beach, FL and Ft. Pierce. Intensity forecast seems to range from about 105 - 115, also roughly the same strength as Frances when she made landfall. Sigh...

Weatherboy1 · #17 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:36 pm

is similar to most other models, but a bit further N, showing what appears to be a hit between Ft. Pierce and Melbourne. Can't really tell because the resolution isn't tremendous on the website, and you can't get the 0-72 hour positions. But here's Jeanne in three days:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004092312!!/

JEANNE MODELS

JEANNE MODELS

here's a quick summary from another post of mine ...

to close the loop -- the EURO ...

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